Many individuals now work partly or completely from dwelling. This protects petrol as a result of they not must drive to the workplace—which is sweet for the vitality transition. Or not. As a result of at dwelling, they devour much more vitality for heating and cooking, and video calls additionally devour further vitality within the knowledge facilities of Microsoft, Zoom and the like. Does digitalization now save vitality or are we simply blowing extra CO2 into the ambiance?
Evangelos Panos’ reply offers us hope. Along with former Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) doctoral pupil Lidia Stermieri and researchers of ETH Zurich, the researcher from the Power Economics Group within the Lab for Power Methods Evaluation at PSI has proven in an elaborate calculation mannequin that “digital lifestyles” will truly save 10% to twenty% in vitality in 2050 in comparison with 2020.
Rebound results—financial savings in a single place that result in extra consumption elsewhere—are greater than compensated for by extra environment friendly applied sciences and modifications in conduct. “Digitalization does not solve all problems,” says Panos, “but it supports the transformation of the energy system on the way to net zero emissions.” The researchers report on their findings within the journal Power Coverage.
Socio-economic selections taken under consideration
For her calculations, Stemieri used STEM (Swiss TIMES Power Methods Mannequin), which has been developed over years of painstaking work at Power Economics Group into a strong mannequin for simulating an vitality system. Six million equations with six million variables symbolize the Swiss vitality system and the interactions of applied sciences, vitality and emissions carriers, and sectors.
The variables are linked to one another in lots of dimensions, additionally throughout time and area, through the equations. This enables numerous situations to be calculated as much as 2050, i.e., as much as the yr by which Switzerland goals to be carbon-neutral, and even past.
“It is the only model that can model development paths for Switzerland’s entire energy system over long periods of time and with a very good temporal resolution and a very detailed representation of all energy system sectors,” says Panos.
Nonetheless, STEM solely fashions the techno-economic aspect of the vitality system and doesn’t present any info on socio-economic elements. For instance, how individuals make selections about their vitality consumption. Individuals who solely make money working from home might not purchase a brand new automobile. Although they may purchase a warmth pump at dwelling, however provided that they’re the proprietor of the property and never a tenant. Many interwoven concerns play a job right here, which collectively can have a big impression on the vitality system in the long run.
That is why Stermieri has docked one other mannequin onto STEM: SEED (Socio-Financial Power mannequin for Digitalization). SEED maps the heterogeneity of the decision-making processes of actors in households, elements of the service sectors and trade with the intention to analyze synergies and interactions within the introduction of energy-saving digital providers and practices.
These socio-economic selections are exchanged through an interface with STEM. Together, this has resulted in one of the superior fashions for vitality programs with a nationwide scope in Europe.
Completely different assumptions and their situations
Stermieri used her mannequin to calculate and analyze two attainable situations. Within the “Frozen” state of affairs, she assumes that society reveals little interest in advancing digitalization and that it due to this fact stagnates. In distinction, digitalization accelerates within the “Accelerated” state of affairs. Society reveals a constructive perspective in direction of digitalization and technological growth, supporting new digital social practices, progresses accordingly. This additionally reveals the constructive affect on vitality consumption.
Stermieri wanted to run her mannequin 20 to 30 occasions for every state of affairs, which takes a quick PC round 60–90 hours of intense computations. Throughout every of those runs, the 2 vitality programs interacted with one another a number of occasions in order that the interaction between society and know-how could possibly be realistically modeled. “We’re not predicting the future,” emphasizes Stermieri, “we’re exploring it by calculating scenarios based on the what-if principle.”
Even when none of those situations will materialize in precisely the identical method, they’re very helpful as a decision-making support for these accountable in politics and enterprise. “The scenarios show possible courses of action and their consequences. This is particularly interesting when comparing different scenarios,” says Stermieri.
Future work to combine psychological results
Stermieri’s mannequin covers all sectors—households, trade and politics—and never simply particular person applied sciences. “This makes it unique in Europe,” says Panos. It additionally reveals the event from the straightforward fashions from the Nineteen Eighties, which initially solely calculated the vitality sector in a easy method, to fashions that additionally simulate the interplay of various applied sciences.
The present mannequin additionally contains socio-economic elements and is due to this fact extra interdisciplinary than ever earlier than. Nonetheless, even that is solely an intermediate step in direction of much more sensible fashions, which may also contemplate findings from psychology sooner or later.
Panos is engaged on this with doctoral pupil Shadi Firoozyalizadeh in a sub-project of the CoSi analysis program (Co-Evolution and Coordinated Simulation of the Swiss Power System and Swiss Society). The venture goals to analyze the social change processes which might be mandatory for the transformation of the vitality system.
Within the venture, psychologists are investigating, amongst different issues, how individuals make selections about their vitality consumption and know-how selections. Firoozyalizadeh will then combine this decision-making psychology into the SEED mannequin.
Panos is for certain that this era of fashions will result in much more knowledgeable selections when designing a brand new vitality and local weather coverage. “Policymakers will have a unique tool to support them in their decisions that takes greater account of social aspects, because technology alone is not the solution.”
Extra info:
L. Stermieri et al, The position of digital social practices and applied sciences within the Swiss vitality transition in direction of net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in 2050, Power Coverage (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114203
Paul Scherrer Institute
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Digitalization: A blessing for the vitality transformation (2024, July 31)
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