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Beneath the auspices of the India Good Grid Discussion board, the suppose tank based as an umbrella group over India’s 28 state utilities to offer thought management, share main practices, and convey worldwide insights to India, I’m delivering bi-weekly webinars framed by the Brief Checklist of Local weather Actions That Will Work. With the glories of on-line recordings and AI transcription instruments, it’s comparatively straightforward to share each the transcript, and likewise the slides that I used, so I’m making a behavior of it.
Most not too long ago, I held a seminar n the theme of storage applied sciences the grid. For many who choose talk-talk to read-read, right here’s the recorded video of the presentation and dialogue.
Reji Kumar Pillai (RKP): Good morning, good afternoon, good night to all of the members from all over the world. My pleasure to welcome you all for this fourth version of this webinar sequence. As we speak we’ll be speaking about vitality storage. Many years in the past, after we studied electrical engineering, we had been taught {that electrical} vitality can’t be saved. It must be that era and demand must be marched completely in each cycle. However storage, as completely different storage applied sciences have been, we’ve been utilizing for a number of a long time, a lot earlier than that. So pumped hydro storage is historically used it, though its effectivity is way much less 55% to 70%. A lot of the pump storage crops working the vitality value arbitration, although they’re nonetheless viable. When your surplus vitality, which is offered at two cent and at peak hours, you may promote it at 1015 $0.20. In order that turns into viable commercially.
However the issues with pump storage hydro is that it’s extremely geographically dependent, though now folks began making completely different programs for making two reservoirs on the two elevations artificially. However it takes a very long time, lengthy, large capex and also you want water. Additionally, there are historically many different electrochemical applied sciences for vitality storage, obligatory applied sciences for vitality storage, a number of of them. In 2018 2019, India’s market discussion board was tasked with the task of getting ready a vitality storage rotoma for India by 2032. What can be our vitality storage requirement for the grid, based mostly on the renewable vitality program which we had been pursuing at that time limit. So we did modeling research, we examined completely different areas, completely different states of India, and eventually we ready an vitality storage roadmap, which was adopted by Nidhi Ayog, our coverage suppose tank and MNRE MoP and Central Metropolis Authority.
It was issued, it’s a public doc. It’s obtainable on all this web site, together with ISDF web site. So through the course of that preparation of that vitality storage roadmap. We examined deeply the technological challenges, business viability of every of the applied sciences, the mechanical, electrical, electrochemical, all applied sciences, from flywheel to all the pieces we study and what’s instantly viable within the close to future by 2032. This was printed in 2019. By the 2032 time-frame on this decade, what will be commercially viable, technically viable. So we had lastly come to the conclusion that we’ll suggest solely batteries at this time limit. The reason is there, it attracted quite a lot of criticism from many weak folks, saying that you simply didn’t take into account pumped hydro, you didn’t take into account this, that. So pump on the pump hydro. There are greater than two dozen initiatives which had been detailed.
Venture stories had been obtainable for the final three a long time, however no work has occurred. Just one venture which was accomplished someday in 2005 2006 in West Bengal. That’s solely final main pumped hydro storage plant commissioned. And now I’m instructed that on this month or subsequent month in Kerala, one other plant can be commissioned. So a number of challenges and the rapid want for India was pursuing a program of 175 gigawatt of renewable vitality by 2022. Now it’s 24. We have already got near 140. Photo voltaic plus wind is about 135 in the present day. So we want, the necessity for storage is imminent. And this type of expertise, which has a number of dependencies, is troublesome to hook up with the grid or deploy it. So we discovered at that time limit in 2018 to 19, after we lastly determined we are going to suggest battery vitality storage for the grid assist.
Instantly we assess the value. That’s the time when the battery costs had simply come down under $200 per kilowatt hour. 2018 and 2019, it was someplace at that quantity, $190 per kilowatt hour. We discovered that it’ll additional go down. It is going to come someplace close to 100 {dollars} by 2025. That’s what we had in the very best estimates we had that point, it is going to come plus as much as 100. However simply after Covid, it has already gone under $100. And early this yr, the world’s largest battery manufacturing firm, CATL, lowered their costs by 40%. It has now come right down to 50 LFP battery costs. $56 per megawatt hour kilowatt hour $56 per kilowatt hour. So after we put together the vitality storage roadmap, in the present day’s value is sort of one fourth.
In order we stand, the general public are agreeing to the truth that the battery is the best way ahead, though its life is just not very lengthy as we count on. A pump storage hydro plant runs for 50 years, 70 years. Hundred years. A battery could offer you a most of ten years or twelve years. However the benefit with batteries is that it may be deployed in lower than one yr, even in even 100 megawatt, 500 megawatt battery vitality storage programs might be deployed on the most twelve to 18 months. And in lots of instances it has been confirmed that such massive tons of of megawatt scale BSS crops are constructed in lower than 100 years and might be moved from one location to a different location. It may be used for various functions. So it has its versatility. However in the present day I gained’t take a lot time.
So there are lots of new applied sciences which you’ll hear about. Simply earlier than the COVID a brand new set of gravity storage, folks had been going round elevating capital. So not a single profitable gravity storage venture has been elevated but. Though one such firm, the entrance runner, is claiming that they’ve commissioned a plant in China they usually had been to do it in Switzerland. And so they declare that they’ve commissioned a plant in China very not too long ago, someday in November or December, and a few different folks within the UK and in America are additionally engaged on the gravity storage. We now have but to see the true efficiency of that. What’s the spherical journey effectivity? We additionally see many individuals doing pumped thermal vitality storage. I count on and hope that expertise will grow to be viable commercially someday not less than within the subsequent decade.
And there are lots of different issues within the labs, completely different persons are working all throughout the globe. We hold an in depth watch of what’s occurring the place the newest, which I see is supercritical CO2 based mostly brighten cycle. So which is one other expertise which we hope that perhaps within the subsequent 5 to 10 years will probably be commercially viable to deploy. So whereas all these are of rapid want, the speed at which the renewables are growing on the grid, in every single place on earth, India, in Europe, in America, Australia, each a part of the world, the photo voltaic and wind is growing at a sooner tempo. So now we have presently about twelve gigawatt of renewables related to the distribution grid. And really not too long ago, our prime minister introduced a program of 10 million rooftop photo voltaic in simply three years, with a cumulative capability of 30 gigawatt.
So how and that 30 gigawatt of 10 million rooftop will occur? It could possibly occur in three or 4 years. However to handle that, we want storage in each feeder or each substation. Distribution corporations are going to battle to handle this stuff. So I’ll hand over the stage to Michael. He’ll speak about completely different expertise storage applied sciences for various functions. Over to Michael. Sorry I took extra time in the present day.
Michael Barnard (MB): Thanks, Reji. And thanks ISFG. As we’re 21 minutes into the hour, I can be going via these slides extra shortly than I anticipated. So let’s break this down into chunks. So we perceive, Reji is totally proper, that the demand level in the present day is for stuff that battery expertise works nicely. What now we have is a case the place we want frequency and voltage ancillary companies, the place there’s response time have to be in milliseconds, and we want peaker and photo voltaic time shifting from the day in a while, we’re going to want longer length storage, the place the vitality and energy are decoupled, and we’re going to want strategic reserves for the ten to 100 yr time frames when there’s no wind and there’s no photo voltaic for an prolonged time period.
Much less of a priority India, the place the photo voltaic is way more constant, however nonetheless one thing that must be deliberate for. And so the query turns into, how do we offer storage of various varieties throughout these applied sciences?
One of many key issues we need to attempt to do, and one of many benefits of the emergence of storage is that curve within the again, that jagged line, is a typical curve from India’s energy demand. From a examine that was finished just a few years in the past, it’s in all probability modified now. The duck curve line, that black line signifies that as photo voltaic comes on-line they usually mid at noon, demand and provide change considerably. And so what now we have is a nighttime drop when there’s doubtlessly quite a lot of wind on the grid.
And that wind can be utilized to shift demand for charging autos, for buffering truck stops, for heating scorching water, for properties and for business buildings, and for charging autos of all types. It can be used to place into grid storage. However the duck curve can be a time for shifting demand to that noon photo voltaic peak or to atom peak storage. And the intent is to flatten that large spike over on the appropriate. That black line throughout the highest signifies a excessive diploma of distribution grid utilization. Proper now, in the US and Europe, grid utilization is 50. Distribution grid utilization is 50% to 60% India, per the sources I’ve, it’s decrease because of another constraints. Nonetheless, that’s a. You understand, the fabric I had is just not essentially updated. Maybe Reji, on the finish of this, can articulate it.
The worth proposition, one of many worth propositions, is that storage and this demand shifting can allow utilities to get much more out of the distribution grid property and thus have a decrease value per buyer. For the distribution grid facet of issues, it’s a way more viable, helpful factor.
As Reji stated, there’s quite a lot of vitality applied sciences. This can be a framework I have a tendency to make use of to speak the place there’s quite a lot of hype up within the attractive and silly house digital hydrogen for vitality and all this stuff is up within the attractive and silly house. However that sensible column will get to the center of the matter proper now. Grid lithium ion particularly. However rising chemistries like LFP are getting quite a lot of consideration.
They’re straightforward to place in, they’re more and more low-cost, however they couple vitality and energy that’s appropriate for that shorter interval, their present length. As we transfer ahead, vitality and energy goes to grow to be disadvantageous. We now have to place in increasingly and extra batteries simply to get the vitality. And that energy functionality is completely different. So I’ll discuss a bit extra about that later. However redox move is there. We’ve obtained good charging for demand administration. We’ve obtained pumped hydro, passive hydro. We’re damned. They’re not handled as baseload, however as on demand peakers. So we permit them to be extra versatile and nature fills them, after which we want some strategic reserves.
And my desire is capturing the methane that comes out of our present human precipitated actions, like landfills and dairy barns and different issues, and placing that slowly into strategic methane reserves and simply operating mixed cycle gasoline era crops. And naturally, warmth storage. There’s some stuff the place it’s attractive and silly, like producing electrical energy from it, nevertheless it’s fairly good for lots of issues, which we’re not utilizing it for. It’s an awesome place the place in the event you want scorching water through the day for cooking, cleansing, and you warmth it at evening when the electrical energy is reasonable with a warmth pump, you’ve obtained an amazing optimization simply with that expertise.
So I’m way more bullish on pumped hydro than Reji is. Statistics I’ve seen on nicely designed and nicely managed pumped hydro point out they’re 80% spherical journey, been on the grid for a very long time and they’re nonetheless dominant by way of grid storage from an influence, and particularly in an vitality perspective, that’s not a really previous circle diagram pie chart on the facet, 98% of the deployed grid storage was pumped hydro. The IEA’s most up-to-date report on battery storage signifies large deployment of batteries, however that’s nearly solely inside electrical autos, not on grid storage. So whereas we’re seeing quite a lot of consideration paid and quite a lot of worth from battery electrical, it’s not. It’s a little bit of an availability bias by way of what we’re really seeing, by way of the way it’s really coming about.
After I discuss to battery storage and grid storage folks within the UK, for instance, like Mark Wilson, he’s growing each pumped hydro and batteries. And his perspective for the UK, the battery facet, the cell based mostly battery facet, they’re going to be full with the necessity for that part of storage in 2028 or 2029 at present velocity. In different phrases, whereas they’re going to place, they’re going to have the ability to fulfill that quick time period want fully and do it shortly. However it’s a brief time period alternative. And that’s my perspective on quite a lot of this, is that there’s going to be some extent the place the battery’s coupling of vitality and energy falls down. Now, I’m challenged on that in a few methods, which I’ll converse to on the finish, as a result of there’s a altering dynamic.
We additionally speak about vehicle-to-grid. Each time I speak about storage, folks say, nicely, we’re going to have all these batteries within the autos, which we do. We’re going to have a number of them. My estimation is we’re going to have 20 gigawatt hours of batteries in electrical autos, electrical private autos in the US alone by 2050. Loads. However there’s challenges there. Now, I feel that the good charging high line goes to dominate. Mainly, India’s already obtained a time of use billing that’s pushing folks into the photo voltaic peaks, into the photo voltaic durations and into nighttime by setting a pricing precisely the appropriate factor to do. However I’ll say for India’s sake.
Due to behavioral economics, the best way that individuals really suppose, folks, that form of works, and it form of doesn’t. The easiest way is that if the value sign is distributed to an automatic resolution which optimizes for the shopper round a coverage which they should decide out of. In different phrases, good chargers say, except the shopper tells me in any other case, I’m going to solely cost in durations when there’s excessive photo voltaic, there’s low prices of electrical energy. For one purpose or one other, that automation coupling wants to start out rising. A few of that for multi unit residential buildings with electrical car charging within the parkades turns into computerized as a result of sometimes the multi unit resident is paying for the electrical energy they usually’re paying for that energy peak.
I’m paying rather a lot in my constructing of roughly 300 or 400 residents, we pay about 25% of our electrical energy invoice on the energy peak worth. And in order we discover charging for the constructing, we’re explicitly good fees that push that out. So a few of them will simply happen naturally. Then there’s the chance for aggregated massive organizations that present charging and fleets to work with utilities to tie into demand administration options that the electrical energy administration programs of utilities already use to contract with them for lowered charging energy in occasions of excessive demand. As a possibility.
However there’s additionally a possibility for, with the decreasing battery costs for fleets and truck stops and different excessive demand areas to construct sufficient batteries that they’ll really cost them at a constant energy degree for twenty-four hours and supply all of the companies, successfully turning the battery right into a flat vitality demand, a really constant vitality demand, which utilities have a distinct worth for. The most affordable charges in lots of jurisdictions are for industrial demand energy, which is totally constant. Now, that’s Quebec, the place there’s a number of hydro. There’s some fascinating modeling to be finished round that. And car to grid and car to dwelling are simply decrease probability issues. They’re highly regarded. And North America, the place everyone has a indifferent dwelling and everyone has a driveway they usually’re not in a multi unit residential constructing.
However that doesn’t describe a lot of the world and that doesn’t describe most of India. And in order that car to grid, maybe in business fleet views, however I believe not there as a result of they want the electrical energy to do their jobs.
In order I take a look at grid storage applied sciences, I abstracted up the attributes of storage to find out the necessities as we predict throughout them. So how lengthy does storage final, that vitality versus energy flexibility, which turns into essential later within the cycle of decarbonization, the associated fee per megawatt longevity, as talked about, the cycle depend, how lengthy does it final? What number of occasions are you able to whip via it earlier than it begins to degrade? How lengthy does it takes to construct viability at a number of scales?
As a result of I’m going to say it very clearly, in the event you’re not speaking a gigawatt of energy or approaching a gigawatt of energy, and ten, you realize, 5 to 10 to 30 gigawatt hours of vitality, why hassle with pumped hydro? It’s a giant factor. Maturity, environmental dangers, present deployment. How usually is, like I stated, pumped hydro is over, and that geographical flexibility factor. So we’ve obtained fairly good protection with pumped hydro, and it’s why I’m bullish on it. It’s obtained all these attributes which make it priceless, and it’s not one thing we want proper now as a lot, as a result of that vitality requirement is completely different. We want the ability and we want the grid stabilization in the present day. So I fully agree with Reji and the ISGS modeling about what India needs to be doing within the quick time period. I disagree in the long run.
So the following one is lithium ion batteries, however fairly in a different way. Spiky. Now, this chart is a take a look at the associated fee per megawatt hour. This chart is from a few years in the past. And I, like everyone, am stunned by how briskly battery costs have been plummeting. We’re all even battery optimists as I’m, I’m strongly a battery optimist. Not saying something in opposition to lithium ion as a grid storage expertise, or lithium phosphate or different chemistries. It’s simply the value level reductions are thoughts boggling. So after I redo this, as I redo my projections each two to 4 years, as new information is available in, I’m undoubtedly going to make this a bit completely different. I’m going to evaluate that value. Longevity is an issue. Pumped hydro, it’s 100 to 125 yr asset. It’s not costly to take care of.
And each ten years or so, ten to fifteen years, you’re going to have to switch the cell based mostly battery options. Nice in the event you want the ability and instantaneity, not so nice in the event you want the opposite stuff. It’s mineable and all that stuff. And so we begin seeing the development time being very viable. The viability at a number of scales is so essential. One of many causes we hold being stunned is that something that may go into a private electrical car of any kind will get constructed by the thousands and thousands and billions of cells, and that drives down the associated fee per cell tremendously. So, a number of nice stuff. Present deployment is. There’s actually extra present deployment of grid storage, however nowhere close to the extent of precise energy from pumped hydra.
Redox move batteries are fascinating. They’re one other set. You understand, they’re principally one thing like a gasoline cell between a few tanks of chemical substances that as you place electrical energy in there, chemical substances move via, and it’s the identical factor as a small cell based mostly battery, nevertheless it decouples vitality and energy once more. So, as we transfer into the worth proposition of redox, move batteries enhance, they usually have geographical flexibility, which pumped Hydra doesn’t. And I’m going to say the next very fastidiously. If we didn’t have excessive voltage, direct present transmission, I’d care extra about geographical flexibility. However we’re transmitting energy far and wide anyway via extremely environment friendly cables. So the truth that you don’t have pumped hydro amenities obtainable in New Delhi doesn’t actually appear as related to me. You simply have to construct the transmission, and India is actually good at that.
So this stuff, for me, say that for the applied sciences of grid storage of the long run, pumped redox move batteries, pumped hydro and lithium ion batteries, or cell based mostly batteries are going to be dominant. Now that value level adjustments. I’ve had this dialogue with infrastructure funds in Europe. They’ve requested me, as this stuff get cheaper, does it actually simply not matter? Will we simply put increasingly batteries on? As a result of we will waste the ability functionality, however the vitality is cheaper? And that’s a extremely good query. I’ve adjusted this barely. I’ve to come back again to that and give it some thought extra. The purpose right here is, as we undergo this, I’m not addressing on this the strategic reserves, however pump tides that shift in vitality necessities versus energy necessities as we transfer via the top recreation of decarbonization turns into essential.
You discover you’re seeing nearly all of the rise right here. However I may even say the next. The large enhance right here. One of many issues I love to do after I take a look at issues is ask what’s China doing at scale? As a result of no matter they’re doing at scale and at pace might be the appropriate reply within the majority of conditions exterior of China, simply because they’re forward of the curve on a few of this. Electrified buses. Yeah, okay. Electrical buses are one among our scorching gasoline cell buses as a result of they’ve 600,000 electrical buses and 3000 4000 gasoline cell buses. Most likely a sign that electrical buses are match for function. And in China they have already got, since I constructed this preliminary projection, added 50 gigawatts of energy, probably a terawatt hour of vitality storage within the type of operational pumped hydro.
And so they have one other 365 gigawatts of energy, probably representing eight or twelve terawatt hours of vitality. As we take a look at China, we are saying, they’re going large, very large on pumped hydro. That’s an indicator that we needs to be excited about pumped hydro as a strategic factor for the long run vitality storage, as a result of we be taught from the people who find themselves doing it proper. And China is doing quite a lot of stuff proper. In order that’s a counter argument to dismissal of pumped hydro, for my part.
After which there’s the opposite factor. You understand, India is simply not a spot the place this, just like the prairies in the US, or the northern steppes the place the Ukraine is in Europe, it’s not all flat. There’s quite a lot of pumped hydro property, sources that could possibly be taken benefit of. That is the Australian Nationwide College’s greenfield pumped hydro.
Pumped hydro useful resource map for India and surrounding space. And all of these dots you may see over right here, you realize, 5 terawatt hours, 200 hours, you realize, 1.5 terawatt hours. You understand, there’s quite a lot of vitality storage obtainable in these useful resource places. And that is particularly for closed loop off river pumped hydro. So not damming a river or a stream, however discovering a spot the place you’ve obtained 400 meters or extra of head peak. And you’ll put slightly dam on a gully up within the hill and you’ll construct, dig a gap down on the backside, dig a tunnel between them and get vitality storage at 500 meters of head peak with 1 km² pond on the high of the underside, holding a gigalitre of water and placing it up and down. That’s a gigawatt hour of vitality.
The useful resource potential so as to add gigawatt hours is simply making the reservoir larger, and that’s cheaper to make reservoirs larger than nearly anything we do on this context. In order we get into vitality storage, versus the reactive, the quick energy response kind of factor, my perspective is that pumped hydro goes to, as it’s in China, see a big resurgence. However that doesn’t imply that I do know India’s situations nicely sufficient to say that there are all these completely different coloured dots that aren’t proper the place folks have properties and villages and present makes use of. And so I don’t know that. What I do know is that ANU checked out near transmission off of protected lands, 400 meters or extra of head peak, and the supply of high and backside reservoirs inside a few kilometers of each other. So, fairly good start line.
They discovered 100 occasions the useful resource capability of pumped hydro as whole vitality storage wants for the world. And it’s simply water. It doesn’t devour water, it doesn’t should be purified. Water goes up, it goes down, the water will get bored. Sturdy worth proposition for that.
There’s additionally brownfields. These are locations the place there are present mines or present amenities that may be transformed to pumped hydro, and to offer that worth proposition. In some locations the place there’s been quite a lot of mining, as in Quebec, for instance, engaged on a pumped hydro venture, which takes a few previous asbestos open pit mines and is contemplating repurposing them for that function. And so they’ve obtained the potential for a gigawatt of energy and 26 gigawatt hours of storage conveniently situated on the grid.
The numbers get very staggering with pumped hydro fairly shortly, and it’s stuff that standard that individuals can do fairly simply. However removed from a slam dunk, as Reji factors out, I take a look at this and I share How Large Issues Get Finished.
I used to be really talking to Oxford World Tasks, the group that Bent Flyvbjerg based simply yesterday, about pumped hydro and numerous issues. However cell based mostly battery storage, whereas they don’t have them of their 25 classes of megaprojects, they’ve over 16,000 megaprojects, over a billion {dollars}, US {dollars} of value of their information set. Now, they’ve been assembling it since 1998 or so, they usually don’t have grid storage categorized but. So cell based mostly battery storage is just not current, nevertheless it’s going to be up there. Photo voltaic and wind energy, it’s very low danger to deploy.
Famously, anyone in Australia stated, hey, Elon Musk, are you able to get us some battery storage? And Elon stated, how a lot? 100 MW energy. And Elon stated, three months or it’s free. That’s like photo voltaic. It’s that straightforward. Pour slab. Drop some delivery containers on, wire them on. The dangers are low. Then again, as I have interaction round a few of that, as I’m partaking with the consumer round potential de-risking of a pumped hydro facility with all that vitality, it entails tunneling and dams, which have longer lengthy tailed danger, extra issues can go unsuitable. Anytime you dig underground, there’s the danger of operating into an igneous intrusion of rock, which is way tougher than the encircling floor. And that jams. Tunnel boring machines stomp a few of their tracks. Snowy River Two has finished a really poor job of de-risking their tunneling.
They didn’t do adequate geological surveys, they didn’t know what was down there. And consequently, their tunnel boring machine is caught. It’s a 150 meters lengthy machine and it’s caught 195 meters into tunneling. So there are dangers related to that. However it’s a strategic useful resource. It’s a way more strategic infrastructure play than batteries. I feel India actually ought to rethink and begin saying strategically, what are our vitality necessities versus our energy necessities? And the way will we begin constructing our vitality necessities now whereas fulfilling our energy necessities within the quick time period of the batteries? As a result of I feel that’s going to be a break up as we transfer ahead. In order that was as fast as I might get via these slides. So let’s flip it again to Reji for moderation.
RKP: At first, one of many slides you talked about, car to grid within the fullest phase. That’s one thing which we’re excellent at in India. We hope it is going to work and we’re going to do an indication venture. So that is AC V 2G. We’re very, what you name within the final phases of preparation for doing it, perhaps that 4 autos for suv’s can be retrofitted with bi directional fees contained in the automotive in addition to bi directional fees related to the grid. And 4 completely different utilities India, three in Delhi, one in Kerala, can be managing this for a. I imply, from July onwards, this can be on trial for six months.
So we hope that is one thing which we will actually leverage for excellent flexibility as a result of thousands and thousands of autos can be sitting through the day, through the night, peak hours. So we’re additionally going to have a differential tariff for electrical energy in the present day. Residential folks pay, and a lot of the business folks additionally pay flat tariffs throughout the month. No matter what time you utilize electrical energy, your tariff is flat, nevertheless it’s going to vary authorities. As most of you realize, India is rolling out 250 million good meters. When the good metering rollout is accomplished, the federal government has already stated the regulators could go for differential tariffs. So within the afternoon hours, when now we have larger photo voltaic era, when there may be surplus energy on the grid, we should always give rebates. As much as 20% rebate might be given. That’s the time most of the electrical autos can cost.
And later within the night, as much as 20% surcharge might be levied over and above the prevailing tariff. That is one thing which we had finished a really fascinating pilot venture two years in the past in one of many states, one of many cities in north India, we discovered it fairly fascinating. I imply, not with V 2g, however with the giving value alerts, providing surplus era awards, giving rebate and peak hours, making residing a surcharge. This went fairly nicely. So anyway, we gained’t divert from the topic, the V 2g half. We predict there’s a potential that may be leveraged for excellent flexibility, and we’re demonstrating that very quickly.
MB: My arguments in opposition to car to grid largely come right down to the cognitive facet of it. There’s, as I take a look at what Kahneman gained his Nobel Prize for, it was prospect concept. Prospect concept says that individuals worth one thing. They worth potential loss greater than they worth potential achieve. And so they, you realize, it’s a part of the truth that something you personal, you worth way more extremely than different folks do. This falls into actual property. There’s a complete bunch of psychology round this, however what meaning is that for individuals who have electrical energy of their autos, they take into account that to be theirs, they usually take into account it to be of upper worth than most utilities will more often than not. And they’ll worry lack of vary, they’ll worry lack of utility of their autos.
And so there’s circumstances beneath which that may work. However in my modeling of the particular use of autos, continuously, nearly all of the autos that are low use autos, private electrical autos, which, by the best way, are fewer India than in North America and west, these are continuously touring in, these are continuously touring throughout peak demand hours, they usually’re continuously again dwelling moderating. Yeah. And the folks with these autos is not going to really feel they’re priceless. Now, that stated, there’s, you realize, for fleets, I’ve been quite a lot of fleets, and the expectation for lots of fleets may be very excessive utilization energy now, if there’s a fleet which is a business fleet, which is solely a daytime hours business fleet, that’s a robust alternative for some nighttime stuff.
However I nonetheless take into account autos to be extra of a requirement administration alternative for utilities than a car to grid alternative. I’ve confirmed unsuitable. I’ve been confirmed unsuitable on different issues as nicely.
RKP: So the 2 issues, one, the present demonstration which you might be doing India is with the suv’s, the small suv’s which has 40 kilowatt hour batteries. And as you might be realizing, as others can be realizing in V 2G, usually we do shallow charging and discharging. Shallow discharging, it by no means goes under 30%. So we count on that individuals don’t have. There are sufficient use instances, there are sufficient pilot initiatives and research which say that battery participation in V 2G is just not going to kill the battery sooner than its guarantee life. So there are some research which say that, in truth, the autos that are collaborating see battery life have improved. Actually, the sluggish shallow charging and discharging have a massaging impact on the battery and its life is prolonged.
One other very fascinating case which we’re doing, and I’m, is that we’re additionally very eager on. Though they couldn’t do a lot due to the electrical energy, regulators haven’t been ahead wanting. It’s coal bus electrification. There are literally thousands of faculty buses in every metropolis, which Reji runs for two hours within the morning.
MB: As we get thinking about the ability versus vitality, we get thinking about terawatt hours of vitality storage. We have to scale the vitality way more than the ability. And that’s to the purpose the place cell based mostly batteries have a decent coupling of energy and vitality and so decoupling that redox move batteries are a part of that resolution. Pumped hydro, for my part, is a part of that resolution as nicely. However sometimes you’re nonetheless going to solely get right down to a restrict of maybe 72 hours for pumped hydro. Given the potential. As we glance ahead, the. My perspective is we’re already storing vitality in bulk. In most international locations, it’s strategic reserves of pure gasoline. Pure gasoline is simply methane.
As we transfer ahead, it is smart to me to divert the methane that we create biologically from organic processes in our financial system, divert that into the long run pure gasoline storage amenities we all know, methane is way much less leaky than hydrogen and methane. Anthropogenic biomethane is a large local weather downside. And so diverting that serves each local weather change actions by way of decreasing methane emissions, but additionally gives a few of that strategic vitality reserve between.
To reply the second query, differentiating between greenfield and brownfield pumped hydro. Greenfield pumped hydro builds the reservoirs the place there are not any reservoirs. Builds one up on the highest of the hill. We’re in a gully, one on the backside of the hill, and construct a pond between them. A brownfield pumped hydro. There are two classes of that.
The primary is the place there are present open pit mines or mines which might be appropriate for it. You have already got reservoirs with peak differentiation between them. Presumably not each reservoirs, however you might have a part of the infrastructure constructed. You must do some engineering to stabilize the slopes to make it capable of cope with transferring water, these sorts of issues. However you’ve obtained parted infrastructure and you’ll rebuild it. The second class are some present dams which might be appropriate for including pumped hydro functionality to. This one is an fascinating one since you want a really large lake downstream from the dam to ensure that that to work. When you’re simply taking it from the river, that doesn’t make a lot sense. So that you want a giant reservoir of water downstream that’s pure largely for that to work. There are some variants there, however these are the 2 classes.
Present mining websites which might be tapped out and present dams the place it’s viable at pumped hydro from a nuclear energy plant. I’m going to say that’s not an vitality storage resolution query and we could have extra of a dialogue. And one other factor, I’ll simply say that module, nuclear energy crops are within the attractive and silly class and go away it at that.
So storage is required in EVs, storage is required within the grid. Storage appears to take some time, and can’t be totally catered. Storage must be deployed strategically. How this problem of storage deployment might be dealt with, to paraphrase what I perceive is being requested, there’s all these kinds of length and pace of response to storage and there’s storage behind the meter, there’s storage in autos. The query I imagine is how can we work out what to do? And India has already finished the primary reduce at this ISGF lender. Reji has finished a examine they usually stated, okay, right here’s the patterns. I’ve finished the examine and stated, right here’s the patterns.
The necessity is to redo these research and say, okay, with this emergent understanding of main practices from completely different components of the world, with the decline in battery prices, with the expansion of pumped hydro, in main geographies which might be main in a few of these issues, revisit that and say, okay, right here’s what we thought was true. Right here’s what we predict is true. Now then, in fact, as you progress ahead, it’s a coverage and technique query. So a few of that’s pure value alerts, as Reji was speaking about, with rebates and time of use, billing and good metering, which drives conduct to a sure level. Others of it’s recognizing limits, making an attempt to get people who’re messy brains to do something of their greatest curiosity economically, as a result of we’re not rational actors.
We do stuff as a result of it feels good in the intervening time and getting a few of that automated in order that there’s an computerized demand administration facet that diminishes these prices. Others of it’s incenting behind the meter batteries. The instance that I offer you is, I used to be wanting on the unfold within the west of heavy obligation trucking, what they name class eight autos in North America, 29 to 49 tons, street autos with freight on them. And in that case, as we take a look at that, take a look at the vitality demand and the ability demand in truck stops, low-cost batteries make that rather more viable, and also you don’t should. Whereas a 5 megawatt energy grid connection can take years to construct, a, you realize, 500 kilowatt hour grid connection is straightforward.
If a battery buffer can provide you 24 hours of vitality at a gradual state after which ship that energy to vehicles. Now, with the cheaper batteries, now we have that battery buffering alternative for locations the place there’s spiky energy calls for, and so we will commerce battery storage for that. And that’s the form of factor that will get into the following spherical of storage. Vitality storage methods and organizations just like the ISGF and the utilities India have to spend time considering via this new world we inhabit and say, okay, on this world, what are our long run wants after we want them? What are our alternatives for buffering? How can we keep away from grid distribution, grid prices driving up our capability components in our distribution grid, after which assembling a bunch of leverage from incentives to rules to flat out shopping for and constructing infrastructure. It’s non trivial.
So query six can also be not about vitality storage. And so I’m going to defer that one vitality storage simply just because now we have the ability facet of it and stuff. I would favor to stay to the storage matter this time round within the curiosity of time. We’re on the hour.
So I’ve heard lithium ion batteries are above 45 levels celsius. Celsius has points for electrical autos. Is it so? Sure. There are thermal administration necessities for electrical car batteries. That’s why Tesla began placing warmth pumps of their automobiles and suvs fairly some time in the past. They had been main in that regard as a result of they found that thermal administration of the battery bundle led to higher energy effectivity and higher vitality effectivity. And so the warmth pump can transfer that round.
When you’ve got a poorly constructed lithium ion battery pack with out thermal administration, it’s extra of an issue within the case of. However I’ll examine and distinction diesel engines. A diesel engine has to warmth up in a colder local weather. A diesel engine must be heated with a block heater for an prolonged time period earlier than the situations are proper for it to start out. And you are able to do the identical with the IM battery pack. When you’re in a colder local weather or a warmer local weather, you may. And you realize you’re going to drive in ten minutes. You begin that thermal administration, after which whenever you begin the automotive and are transferring the automotive, the battery is on the proper temperature, the optimum temperature, and it’s not a giant energy drain as a result of it’s warmth pumps. So all manageable.
However crappy automobiles and crappy lithium and battery packs continuously have crappy vitality administration. So pay attention to that.
Are there any rules and requirements to look out for when BSS, product or venture developments? If not, what areas do you see them come up sooner or later? So rules and requirements as that is an India centered factor. I don’t know the specifics, rules and requirements inside India. And so Reji, maybe you could possibly subject this query.
RKP: We now have requirements. The Bureau of Indian Customary issued some requirements on battery vitality storage programs, however on the regulation facet, it’s nonetheless silent. Regardless of that, now we have been issuing initiatives now, renewable vitality initiatives with around the clock RTC we referred to as around the clock energy availability. So these initiatives are being constructed with storage they usually construct our capability and likewise they construct storage. A few of them, the primary era of these going to be dwell or commissioned this yr are going to come back with pumped hydro storage. And a few of them subsequent yr, which can be coming on-line can be this RTC venture. Large ones. These are all gigawatt scale 1. That form of venture goes to be with battery storage. However a transparent regulation on that’s nonetheless lacking.
There’s ancillary companies regulation, which was issued two years in the past, which is speaking about ancillary companies solely on the transmission degree, not at that distribution degree. So this stuff will evolve quickly.
MB: I’ll say that the chance round chemistries is a worldwide concern. A little bit of a hysteria that’s being promoted by folks against transition about lithium ion batteries going up in flames. There’s a a lot decrease incident of lithium ion battery grid storage and behind the meter storage amenities catching fireplace after they do catch fireplace, in lots of instances, fireplace departments are usually not ready to cope with the traits of the fireplace. And so there’s variations in that, and there’s an emergent set of that. Battery pack programs go up in flames quite a bit much less usually than diesel backup turbines. Battery electrical automobiles go up in flames quite a bit much less usually than gasoline or diesel autos. It’s inherently safer, however the traits imply that there’s quite a lot of concern about it.
Within the west, we’re seeing fireplace departments placing in rules that you could’t put a battery storage system underground in a campus. For instance, the College of Toronto’s most up-to-date instance I’m conscious of, regardless of having allowing electrical automobiles to park underground. It’s a totally, you realize, a clearly disparate factor, and I’m unsure if it’s the identical in India, however fireplace departments have been extremely efficient in North America in gaining all of the funds for emergency responses. So that they’re ravenous the ambulance service, regardless of being actually good at avoiding fires. So now we have very, only a few fires, they usually’re blown out of all proportion by the fireplace division as a result of they get a funds for it. For instance, within the Toronto space, which is 8 million folks, a tiny place by Indian requirements, however 8 million folks. It’s large for Canada.
The hearth division was selling the doubling of battery electrical fires between 2022 and 2023. The variety of fires went as much as 56. 56 small fires in a inhabitants of 8 million folks. You take a look at the precise statistics, they’re trivial. However remember that as you form of take a look at this, a few of this hysteria can be spreading India as nicely. Most likely.
Nonetheless, transferring on, query 9. Can the storage eventualities be modified with the development of lithium ion or vanadium redox move battery storage applied sciences? Sure. So lithium ion, the development there may be not lithium ion, however lithium phosphate and sodium and different chemistries. One of many benefits of battery applied sciences is there are quite a lot of methods to retailer electrical energy with metals and nonmetals.
There’s emergence, for instance, of, you realize, one agency I used to be working with makes use of the method that makes use of CO2 and bromine to make carbonates and reverse that course of and launch the electrical energy. It’s fairly environment friendly, it’s obtained all kinds of benefits, nevertheless it’s a redox move battery. In that case, the chance remains to be transferring ahead in these areas. However I’ll say the next pretty clearly. Lithium ion. The overwhelming majority of batteries constructed in the present day are lithium ion. Meaning it has that have curve and everyone is aware of how to do this, way more so than most different chemistries. But when it’s in an ordinary kind issue of aluminum can, any chemistry which may slot in that aluminum can takes benefit of a lot of the manufacturing facility processes and distribution processes of lithium ion. So there’s actually fascinating stuff there now. Vanadium itself. Vanadium and zinc and iron redox move batteries, they’re fascinating, they’re early days. I don’t suppose we’re on the finish of that. However as I used to be saying to the traders within the CO2 based mostly redox move battery resolution, the time when the massive demand for a redox resolution is 2030 and onwards. And so now we have time.
Reji and ISGF had been fully proper just a few years in the past to say, deal with batteries. As we speak, the time is coming when the strategic stuff must be finished and it’s worthwhile to begin these long term initiatives like pumped hydro very significantly that may stand alone.
Pumped hydro might be thought-about as a standalone energy era system. I don’t learn about India’s rules for distribution facet energy era programs. I do know that in lots of jurisdictions within the west there’s preferential stuff. In southern Alberta, for instance, there’s a number of pure gasoline and transmission interconnects are excessive.
So preferential remedy for small pure gasoline era amenities, not that nice. However pumped hydro, as I say, it’s a scale query. I don’t suppose you must hassle with 70 mw or 1 mw or three megawatt pumped hydro issues. It simply doesn’t make any sense. It’s simply cheaper to purchase some cell based mostly batteries and dump them in your.
Simply don’t fuss. It’s like folks in North America who’ve properties they usually insist on getting off the grid. They’ve their very own photo voltaic they usually have one thing else and have batteries they usually have their very own inverters they usually have their very own management programs they usually snip the wire with utilities. And I say, why do you undergo all that hassle? It’s simply extra hassle than it’s price, as a result of it’s important to handle your personal frequency, your personal voltage. Simply don’t do it easy, low-cost. When you really need behind the meter vitality storage in the present day, get the appropriate measurement battery. However are there standalone energy era issues inside India that might promote different sorts of issues? Reji, as with the helpful charges for behind within the distribution grid distributed era, are there preferential charges for distributed vitality era India? Stuff that feeds into the distribution facet.
RKP: Of the grid in older states through the interval from 2013 to 2016, besides the northeastern states, all different states, mainland states issued web metering insurance policies, however through the years, a few of these have gone again to gross metering and or some adjustments which have occurred. However photo voltaic web metering is there in every single place, however no different main coverage intervention for the behind the meter sources. So we’re engaged on that. Perhaps any useful resource behind the meter, it may be battery, storage, warmth pump, no matter it comes. It could possibly be industrial scale air-con crops or heated water heaters, these that may be what you name exploited for excellent flexibility. There needs to be some regulatory mechanism to compensate them for that. So there’s a dialogue, however perhaps with a scale with which the renewable service, the house with which it’s scaling up, renewals are scaling up.
These issues will grow to be actual very quickly. I simply take it, take a minute. We’re out of time. However there are lots of questions concerning the battery temperature, etcetera. So one of many essential issues is concerning the bus and automotive, the 4 wheelers. Mainly batteries are stored in a local weather managed chamber, which isn’t the case in two wheeler and wheeler. So two wheeler, three wheeler. There’s an actual downside. We had tons of of two wheelers going up in flame in 2021 and 22. So we modified some norms in testing, and many others. And so on. So which has lowered in 23 and 24 right here a single incident. These are all associated to tubules, the 45 diploma centigrade electrical tubules catching fireplace. So that’s not there a lot as a result of we made it very strict about that.
Some procedures with the testing and approval of the cells and speaking about, as you stated, having a small pump. Storage in rural areas goes to be way more costly than batteries. So that you rightly deal with batteries pretty much as good. And now another person is asking about sodium ion versus LFP. So at LFP costs, at $50 per kilowatt hour, sodium ion is anytime quickly not going to come back. It’s nonetheless an rising expertise. Not what you name. We don’t have that a lot expertise with sodium ion as now we have with LFP or NMC. So if sodium ion is larger, it doesn’t give me any further benefit than lf eight. Superb for as much as 2 hours, 4 hours or most 6 hours of storage.
However I’ll pay extra money for, any utility could pay extra money for move battery as a result of it provides you six to 10 hours or 12 hours of or much more of storage. So when the efficiency is by and huge the identical, it’s all going to run on business. So as an alternative of paying double the cash, I like two completely different batteries. First battery, I’ll use it for the first 4 hours. And one other battery I’ll use for an additional 4 hours after I get lithium LFP batteries at $50 or much less energy to Michael.
MB: Query eleven. Advantageous for long run vitality storage. Battery electrical programs present that quick time period grid stabilization. There’s a necessity for each. So the best way {that a} pumped hydro system works is you let water, you open a gate and also you’re letting water down alongside penstock and it’s going via a turbine. And the turbine might be synchronous, which implies it has to spin as much as gate grid frequency 50 or 60 hz. Or it’s asynchronous, which implies it begins producing electrical energy instantly. However that’s a mechanical course of. Even with this asynchronous era, it takes just a few seconds or a minute earlier than you’re really producing sufficient electrical energy to be significant. Whereas battery electrical programs can reply in milliseconds. So the place you want millisecond or very quick response batteries work. The place you want a number of vitality, pumped hydro works.
You’re going to want each sorts of traits, as a result of the completely different components of the grid storage requirement have completely different traits. So that you want each. You’re not going to have the ability to do away with batteries as a result of you might have pumped hydro, and also you’re not going to do away with pumped hydro as a result of you might have batteries. They’re completely different beasts. I hope that solutions that. Sodium ion versus LFP and battery storage. Okay, so LFP is rising. Reji talked about CATL’s $56 per kilowatt hour batteries. That’s on the cell degree, not the pack for EV’s or for grid storage amenities. However that’s lithium phosphate expertise. And in order that’s the LFP chemistry is already at that value level. It has decrease vitality density. It’s about 80% the vitality density of present lithium ion. So there’s a commerce off.
You get much less vitality for a similar weight in a car, nevertheless it’s nice for grid storage. And so that you begin to see these chemistries. One of many questions you ask your self is, oh, that chemistry in opposition to the span of immediate response, slower response, extra vitality, extra weight. Which of the use instances the place we want vitality provision, saved vitality provision, is that appropriate for? For instance, the maritime business, which in my projections, goes to affect vastly greater than most individuals suppose, all in land, most quick sea delivery, and hybrids for transoceanic, they’re a lot much less weight delicate. And so the decrease vitality density of LFP at a really low value level is advantageous, nevertheless it gained’t work for air aviation.
So, aviation, the place I’m beginning to see is we’re beginning to see the condensed matter batteries from CATL, which have double the vitality density of lithium ion. And we’re beginning, and I’m wanting, monitoring 4 or 5 organizations now, that are commercializing silicon anode vitality density batteries, which both reduce the load of a battery for a similar storage, or they’ve potential to be 5 occasions the vitality density of CATL’s condensed matter battery. And so we’ll see the place there’s a really sturdy weight benefit. Aviation and doubtlessly private autos and perhaps vehicles, the place we see a robust value benefit, however heavier weights, we see maritime and stationary storage. So, as you take a look at this stuff, don’t ask your self which one goes to win, you’re going to ask your self which one is appropriate for which software and why.
If there’s, like, a few of these chemistries are inherently extra thermally secure than lithium ion, and so the place there’s a really excessive sensitivity to fires, perhaps they’ll have a bonus there. They’ll make them economically aggressive. It’s not remotely a easy reply, and quite a lot of it’s simply going to be, oh, you realize, a bunch of individuals will purchase that as a result of it meets their wants, however we will begin to venture what that’s. Very fascinating house.
How a lot proportion of battery wastage might be allowed to mom Earth. The round financial system. I imagine it is a query about, if I can articulate and paraphrase it, recycling of batteries. So, a giant examine was finished in 2022 or 2023 to debunk the nonsense about, and the nonsense made solely 5% of batteries. We’re already at 59% international recycling of batteries, larger in some levels, decrease in others. There’s no purpose why we will’t get to 95%, particularly for EV batteries. EV batteries are large. The battery in my watch, the battery in my cellphone are tiny, they usually’re amongst a bunch of different stuff however an EV’s battery pack is a giant chunk of mine-able metals and elements. Higher if we construct them to be disassembled. However that’s a course of. They final a very long time. They final 20 years. We’ll reuse them, then we’ll recycle them. We’ll get to 95%. We’ll make the chemistry extra. Michael Liebreich calls this one of many 5 superpowers of decarbonization.
If we’re at 95% recycling and we’re growing effectivity of our chemistries successfully for a very long time, even supposing we will’t get to 100%, we’re getting extra out of the identical minerals we mined 20 and 40 years in the past. And so there’s a robust motion on this planet. We’re already at 59% as of 2019. It’s larger now and it’ll be larger sooner or later. So don’t be involved about that. We want thousands and thousands of tons of battery minerals and we’ve obtained 20 billion tons of fossil fuels.
Trade battery stations for EV’s and cities. I’ll shortly lean into this one. This can be a place that’s a lot hyped and it’s got niches. I’m strongly on battery swapping for trains and ship options. I’m sturdy on battery swapping for geographically constrained fleets the place the price of a 5 minute break may be very excessive.
However proper now, I feel that we’re over specializing in battery swapping. I feel Nio is making the unsuitable selection with its battery swapping autos. Gogoro, I feel, is the identify of this scooter system in Asia. Effectively, it’s dropping $70 million a yr, and its inventory value is down to five% of what it was at its peak. I feel that there are sturdy locations the place containerized batteries make sense, however proper now, the value of batteries means we will put a giant battery on a truck cease or a charging cease to suck energy persistently for twenty-four hours and ship very excessive pace charging the ability facet when automobiles and vehicles want it at very fast dashing. I feel my projection proper now could be that the economics work out higher for buffering batteries and excessive chargers than for the mechanical constraints of making an attempt to swap batteries throughout quite a lot of autos. One of many constraints on battery swapping is you want precisely the identical car.
It has to have precisely the identical containers. And in the event you take into account public charging, in the event you take into account simply vehicles, for instance, meaning all of the truck corporations should agree on the size and all of the requirements across the swappable battery, versus simply agreeing on what the plug seems prefer it’s easier to maneuver electrical energy than it’s to maneuver batteries, for my part. I feel it’ll win out. However as folks identified to me after I printed on this not too long ago, nearly half of the vehicles bought in China final yr had been battery swapping succesful. Now, these had been fleet vehicles. They’re additionally charging succesful, so it’s unclear what proportion are literally utilizing the swapping or versus simply shopping for the flexibleness to swap sooner or later.
As a result of a battery swapping station must be automated, cradle to grave, has to haven’t any folks in it, must be very exact, and it prices about $1.1 million us per battery swapping station today and it’s not going to get less expensive. So I don’t suppose swapping is a giant path sooner or later with low-cost batteries. However I’d be confirmed unsuitable on different stuff, this one. There’s some counterexamples. As soon as once more, China is making me query my assumptions.
RKP: In India, two wheeler and three wheeler swapping stations are working very nicely, though we don’t have an ordinary. So there are 5 or 6 completely different shapes and sizes being kind components being adopted. However it’s rising very quick. Each nook you may. In large cities, not less than about 30-40 cities, you could find battery swapping stations for 2 wheelers and three wheelers. This primarily got here as a result of ISGF advocated two wheeler and three wheeler electrical. Two wheeler and three wheeler needs to be bought with out battery batteries, which has been accepted by the federal government in the present day. There are two village three wheelers. You should purchase it for one thing like $600, $700 with out battery and battery folks take it from the purchasing station. So that’s going. However as you stated, automated, what you name robotic arm based mostly battery purchasing stations.
We tried one in Ahmedabad with Ashoka island and Solar mobility some 4 years in the past. So it didn’t. The buses had 37.5 kilowatt hour batteries, which a robotic was pulling out and placing it again, which didn’t go fairly nicely. So we aren’t transferring in that route. Shifting in that route at this level.
MB: Mainly what I say is that if a human can choose up the battery and transfer it between the house and the scooter, if the batteries are in delivery containers which have a whole distribution system round them, that works. However creating one thing within the center is dear and difficult and results in all kinds of bizarre issues. Densely, like dense city areas the place there’s. The federal government has put its foot down, stated swapping, a superb resolution not replicated in most locations. So it’s fascinating to see the way it varies throughout geography. Thanks, Reji, for declaring that ISGF’s involvement within the structural strategy that India has taken for that. That’s a great further instance for me.
RKP: There are two extra questions. One speaking about distributed. That is one thing which we like to distribute at each dwelling, having rooftop photo voltaic and a battery. And so they actively take part in betting within the energy market. So save the or retailer the solar energy within the battery and promote it throughout peak time or promote it to not the grid however to the peer to look promoting of this. So we have already got a regulation of peer to look saving, of promoting rooftop photo voltaic vitality and a few extra states are going to have it. And we, or we’re working in the direction of a situation. Half of India, peer to look buying and selling of rooftop photo voltaic vitality or clear vitality can be legally obtainable, legitimate. There can be rules supporting that.
After which persons are going to only think about thousands and thousands of individuals going to promote to thousands and thousands of individuals and even the automotive. As we speak one of many main narratives concerning the electrical car is that the Indian grid remains to be 80% coal energy. So my electrical automotive is just not going to be a clear transportation. I’m taking the grey electrons or a black electrons and placing them in my automotive. So it’s not really inexperienced mobility. However that’s all going to vary. You possibly can really purchase from people who find themselves rooftop and promoting it and that’s the long run. We’re it. It is going to occur very quickly.
MB: Yeah, I’m not bullish on that peer to look electrical energy gross sales. You continue to want the utility since you nonetheless want the wires. It turns into a contract between a number of gamers. I checked out this 5 years in the past after I was blockchain and a few of these peer to look vitality options and the contractual buildings must be established and the utility must be paid for the wires. It turns into extra advanced than folks think about. I believe there gained’t be as a lot participation, however I could possibly be unsuitable. I simply don’t see it. Most individuals aren’t going to care about that. Is it advisable to have an EV charging station with battery storage supply? Sure, completely.
The newest evaluation I did says that in two jurisdictions I occur to select up a battery with projections of the battery storage costs by 2030 based mostly upon the $56 this yr, a $30 battery storage that’s adequate to cost 22 heavy vehicles a day. So it’s beginning. Vehicles deployment would pay for itself in 17 months simply on the price of electrical energy arbitrage. Simply taking the third of the day with the bottom charges and transferring that electrical energy to the best charges. The proprietor of the truck cease would pay for the battery very quickly. Then they’d be making coin after that. That flattening.
Any person else identified in that dialogue, one of many first charts it did had that black line of demand the place the grid, that flattening and use of the distribution grid goes to emerge very quickly and that’s going to vary the dynamics of pricing through the day time use pricing is throughout California, adopted Australia. That duck curve in the midst of the day is now a distinct value zone at a a lot decrease fee as a result of folks need the Indian authorities to shift demand there and as soon as once more convey demand up there to fight the duck curve. And battery storage is a part of that. Let’s purchase electrical energy for the battery after which use it within the excessive costly stuff. So battery storage and truck stops, bang on. It’s going to be a really large factor.
And organizations which have been modeling this out, have been modeling out the ability calls for for trucking, however not modeling out battery buffering for trucking. RMI is engaged on this. I’ve been in contact with the man after I printed on battery buffering and the alternatives that I pointed to their RMI’s paper on this they usually stated, yeah, we’re engaged on the following era. It’s as a result of issues have modified. Everyone’s stunned by batteries.
RKP: So Ravi [Seethapahy, Honorary Member and Working Group Chair for ISGF], do you might have any feedback on in the present day’s session?
Ravi Seethapathy (RS): Yeah, I agree. I feel it’s a really advanced topic that you simply gave Michael an hour to speak about. If I used to be to summarize, there can be three reduce factors, proper? About 150 megawatt hours or 200 megawatt hours and better. So he spoke of terawatt hours for the pump storage. So that might be transmission related with the intention to evacuate energy and renewable vitality from anyplace to anyplace. When you come under between the hundred to 5, you typically would get into the battery vitality storage at a distributed account, if you need, after which behind the meter can be 5 mw or decrease, which might be a distinction. So. However the regulation is what kills it, as a result of based mostly on what you should buy for and what you may promote to the grid is the place the difficulty lies. Jurisdiction to jurisdiction.
And that’s the reason the car to grid. And Rish [Ghatikar, ISGF Board Member] and I’ve all the time disagreed on this. And you might be conscious {that a} car to dwelling might be extra doable as a result of I worth each the house in addition to the car. However after I promote it to the grid, I grow to be like a vendor. And I all the time quoted. Even in my youthful days, after we used to go and get kerosene from the store for rationing, we by no means bought it to our neighbor. We by no means bought it to our neighbor. So it was valued way more as a result of we obtained that gasoline via the federal government system. The second factor is, each time you place a charger that’s bi directional, you are attempting to arbitrage a 4 to 5 greenback transaction on a $2,000 set up. You bought to suppose this via.
That’s why I advocate the college bus fleets that’s typically stationary between 10:00 a.m. And it in all probability could offer you a greater enterprise case than making an attempt to place it on particular person autos which might be free wheeling autos, in the event you so want. So I feel it’s a really troublesome topic. So subsequent time you in all probability want to offer them like two and a half hours or 3 hours. No, it’s. It’s, proper. And so I don’t suppose had been honest to only pack it in 45 minutes after which give him a complete slew of questions.
RKP: Thanks. Thanks very a lot. Good day. Good evening to everyone. And we’ll ship the recorded YouTube hyperlink inside 48 hours. And subsequent can be subsequent Thursday. Thanks.
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