Concerning FSD & Robotaxis, I Do not Suppose Elon Musk Has Been “Lying” For A Decade – CleanTechnica – TechnoNews

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I’ve seen this declare numerous instances, and I perceive the place it’s coming from, however I don’t consider it. I usually brush previous it, however given {that a} prime laptop scientist often called the “Godfather of AI” simply mentioned it, and likewise given the large controversy and confusion round Elon Musk as of late (or, properly, perhaps most of his life), I really feel compelled to lastly handle it — and likewise handle how the elemental points could relate to a variety of different essential issues.

The declare is that Elon Musk has been mendacity to everybody about Full Self Driving for years. Extra particularly, this has involved his claims over the previous a number of years that Tesla autos can be succesful, technologically, of working as robotaxis “next year” or “by the end of the year.” Musk kicked off these claims in 2016, if I recall appropriately, when he mentioned on a quarterly Tesla shareholder convention name, “Well, again, major product announcements are not — I shouldn’t do those on an earnings call, obviously. And all I’d say is that full autonomy is going to come a hell of a lot faster than anyone thinks it will. And I think what we’ve got under development is going to blow people’s minds. It blows my mind, so….” If I bear in mind appropriately, that is the primary severe assertion he made that implied robotaxis can be coming quickly. However earlier than we go additional on these ongoing claims, let’s get again to what the “Godfather of AI” simply mentioned.

Yann LeCun, VP & Chief AI Scientist at Meta, wrote: “Elon: ‘I’ve kept lying to you again and again about Tesla’s ‘Full Self Driving’ capabilities for the last 8 years, but you should believe everything I say about politics and everything else.’” This was a brief remark he made whereas sharing a protracted critique of Elon’s FSD claims through the years. He added in response to somebody who wasn’t a fan of his Musk “hating” on X: “I don’t hate Elon. I hate his lies. I like his cars, rockets, and satellite network.” (Hat tip to Futurism.)

Mendacity is saying one thing you realize will not be true. Sure, I do suppose Musk has lied a couple of instances about FSD (and I don’t excuse him for that), however usually talking, individuals use this phrase when speaking about his fully off-the-mark forecasts about Tesla robotaxi functionality. Keep in mind the LA-to-NYC journey a Tesla was imagined to make autonomously? Keep in mind all of the instances he predicted Tesla autos can be able to working as robotaxis in a few years, subsequent 12 months, and even by the top of the 12 months? I’m not going to dig all of them up and timestamp them proper now, however there have been many, and I assume they’re documented within the Dan O’Dowd article Yann LeCun was responding to. The purpose is that he has made these statements, they have been flawed, and it has principally turn into a working joke — as a result of what number of years in a row are you able to make a really related projection and be flawed? And that’s a part of why individuals have referred to as it mendacity or referred to as him a “snake oil salesman.”

Musk himself has mentioned that he’s simply overly optimistic, particularly with timelines. Others near him, like his brother Kimbal, have mentioned the identical. I feel that is a part of it, however solely a part of it. The truth that I’ve come to see this as solely a part of it’s doubtlessly an essential level.

If it was nearly timing, properly, nobody is saying the entire fully off-the-mark predictions aren’t essential*, however the concept that his mind simply lacks a correct calendar and every part shall be true in time is extra palatable for followers than doubting his core understanding of the matter. (*Sorry, that’s a false assertion really — many Elon followers do contend that every one of these missed forecasts aren’t essential.) The critique of his timelines is a well-liked one amongst followers. You’ll be able to’t fairly ignore that his FSD/robotaxi predictions have been horrible in the case of timing, however you possibly can put a optimistic spin on it by saying that he simply thinks that far forward of everybody else and doesn’t anticipate it to take so lengthy to get there.

Nonetheless, he’s really obtained a different monitor regard with the timing of issues. His long-term forecasts for Tesla manufacturing and gross sales from the early 2010s, and even earlier than that, have been virtually spot on what the corporate achieved in 2020. There have been some unhealthy short-term forecasts inside that timeframe, however the long-term forecast was loopy good. (I wrote about this again in 2020 or so, with documentation from an early Tesla slidedeck for traders and early statements from Musk.) However his forecasts on another issues — photo voltaic glass roof tiles, deployment of the Tesla Semi, Tesla Cybertruck pricing and vary, Tesla battery developments, Tesla photo voltaic development, the necessity (or lack thereof) for bodily shops — have been a lot worse. So, sure, generally he nails it however every part takes longer than anticipated; different instances, opposite to what some followers consider, his assumptions and predictions are simply off.

With rocket ships and electrical automobiles, we’ve seen that his preliminary concepts relating to sure prospects in these realms and his obsession with turning these concepts into actuality have led to nice success at Tesla and SpaceX. That time period “obsession” is purposeful. When he has assumed issues that weren’t true, however, and utilized his obsession to the duty, he has ended up with notable failures.

As we’ve seen him tweet about a wide range of different issues in recent times, we’ve seen an analogous form of obsession with a couple of totally different issues. In 2022, he tweeted, “I’m thinking of creating a ‘Super Moderate Super PAC’ that supports candidates with centrist views from all parties.” Anybody who follows his tweets as of late ought to giggle out loud at the concept that Musk would assist “moderate” politicians. He has turn into extremely controversial, he has repeatedly tweeted extremist conspiracy theories, he has turn into extremely partisan, he has engaged in frequent title calling and private assaults, and he has even gone to battle quite a few instances with reasonable politicians, to not point out reasonable regular individuals. The factor is that he will get obsessive over an concept, and that may result in an increasing number of excessive habits and failures moderately than adjusting and altering course. It could additionally result in overcoming troublesome obstacles and succeeding in issues which can be extraordinarily troublesome. He’s not likely the kind of one who’s fast to absorb counterarguments and cease believing in an concept — for higher or for worse.

That’s the place we get again to FSD and robotaxis. Clearly, Musk has put all his religion in these working. I feel that every time he made a forecast about these coming “next year” or such, he strongly believed it. Whilst Tesla has failed at totally different steps, Musk has clung to the preliminary imaginative and prescient and been adamant it’s going to come true. He hasn’t been mendacity. He has merely turn into obsessed along with his preliminary assumptions, time and time once more. The query is: is that this a case the place he’s simply off, and the elemental evaluation and prediction received’t come true, or is that this a case the place he’s obtained the basics down, and he simply wants time to be confirmed proper? We will see….