EVs Take 27.6% Share In France — Citroën e-C3 Arrives In A Rush – CleanTechnica – TechnoNews

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September’s auto gross sales noticed plugin EVs take 27.6% share in France, a drop from 29.3% yr on yr. BEV share grew modestly YoY, whereas PHEV share fell. Total auto quantity was 139,003 items, down by some 11% YoY. The Tesla Mannequin Y was one of the best promoting BEV in September.

September’s market knowledge noticed mixed plugin EVs take 27.6% share in France, with 20.4% full battery-electrics (BEVs) and seven.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These examine with YoY figures of 29.3% mixed, 19.3% BEV and 10.0% PHEV.

BEV quantity truly decreased by some 6% YoY — although, in a broader market which noticed an 11% drop, BEV share nonetheless elevated marginally. PHEVs fared much less properly, with quantity down some 26% YoY and share right down to 7.2% from 10.0%. PHEV share has been remarkably regular at 7-something % for the previous 6 months.

Yr to this point, BEVs have solely taken an extra ~1.2% of market share in contrast so far final yr (17.1% vs 15.9%), which is clearly a weak progress trajectory. The excellent news is that each Citroen and Renault have lastly began buyer deliveries of their new somewhat-affordable BEVs in September, having solely delivered small numbers of dealer-demonstration items beforehand.

The Renault 5 noticed an honest 1,101 items in September, and the Citroen e-C3 made a formidable 3,626 registrations. If the approaching few months may maybe preserve (or enhance) these sorts of volumes, it would make stronger 2024’s total BEV trajectory again into comparatively optimistic territory, but it surely’s not but a certain factor, as we are going to see beneath.

As we are able to see from the powertrain evolution chart beneath, petrol-only gross sales proceed to get replaced by HEV gross sales, in nearly direct proportion. Nevertheless, nearly half of those “HEVs” tallied up by the French auto trade physique (the PFA) are in reality merely mild-hybrids that sometimes use a really modest electrical motor complement to an ICE engine and do mild regen, slightly than having the ability to drive in electrical mode per se, even for a brief distance (as full HEVs at the least can do, to some extent).

These sorts of mild-hybrid HEVs do enhance an ICE engine’s gasoline economic system modestly (by round 15% sometimes), however are solely a quick-fix non permanent stopgap on the way in which to largely plugin powertrains, and ultimately, nearly fully BEVs.

Diesel-only gross sales additionally continued to shrink, right down to a brand new file low of 5.8% share (from 8.5% YoY), and eight,083 items.

Finest Promoting BEV Fashions

The Tesla Mannequin Y was again to the highest of France’s BEV charts in September, with a formidable 4,591 registrations. That is its greatest outcome since December 2023, and solely barely beneath the YoY quantity from September 2023. On condition that there at the moment are a a lot wider array of BEV fashions accessible in comparison with a yr in the past, that is a formidable outcome.

In second place was the brand new Citroen e-C3, with 3,626 items, and in third was the Peugeot e-208, with 1,420 items.

The Renault Scenic, in 4th, put in a file efficiency, 1,264 registrations, up from its earlier better of 991 registrations in July. As we are going to see beneath, this implies the Scenic has simply overtaken its older sibling, the Megane, within the trailing 3-month rankings, as we just lately predicted.

The Mini Cooper has additionally continued to develop, now touchdown in sixth spot with a brand new file of 1,091 registrations. Is that this, in reality, the Cooper mannequin? The AAA knowledge supply simply names the “Mini – Mini” because the bearer of this tally, so this might in reality be any of, or maybe some mixture of, the brand new era of Mini BEVs. Tell us within the feedback in case you have insights.

There wasn’t an excessive amount of dramatic information within the prime 20 ranks, apart from the long-awaited quantity arrival of the 2 new “affordable” BEVs from Citroen and Renault that I discussed earlier. We solely have entry to restricted mannequin quantity knowledge, and plainly below-the-radar numbers (low 3-digit volumes) of each of those new BEVs in reality began to be registered over the previous two months, presumably for preliminary dealer-demonstration items.

There’s a combined blessing within the spectacular trying Citroen e-C3 numbers for September. From native reporting, plainly this surprisingly massive quantity of three,626 items was the results of a rush job by Citroen to attempt to meet the end-of-September deadline for delivering vehicles contracted below the the Social Leasing Programme, signed in early 2024.

Within the occasion that Citroen didn’t meet the supply deadline for the federal government programme (and allow shoppers to say the motivation), it must honour the low cost pricing itself … and ultimately, that unlucky final result occurred. Though 3,626 items did meet the deadline, an additional 2,000 to 2,500 contracted items didn’t, so Citroen needed to honour the low cost out of its personal pocket. This apparently amounted to round €13,000 per car, costing Citroen a tidy ~€30 million.

I’m undecided if the same state of affairs utilized to the timing of the respectable variety of Renault 5 deliveries in September additionally, tell us in case you have data about that. Both means, although unlucky, these missteps will seemingly fade from view in the long term, if the Citroen e-C3 lives as much as its potential of being the model’s greatest promoting BEV, with many tens of 1000’s — maybe even low a whole lot of 1000’s — of items bought yearly.

Let’s now take a look at the 3-month charts:

Regardless of its erratic month-to-month numbers, the longer-term view exhibits that the Tesla Mannequin Y continues to be in a powerful lead total within the French BEV market.

The Citroen e-C3’s September rush-job instantly boosted it to second place, however this can be a short lived rank (at the least within the short-term), as soon as it begins delivering the initially modest month-to-month output to different European nations. In the long term, as soon as totally ramped and with a number of value variants, the e-C3 may (ought to?) definitely be an everyday member of France’s prime 3.

The previous native favorite, the Peugeot e-208, stays in style for now, and took third place.

As alluded to earlier, the Renault Scenic has now lastly overtaken its older sibling, the Megane, by a slim margin (20 items), ending up in fourth place in September. We are able to count on this new household pecking-order to stay in place for the foreseeable future — at the least till the Renault 5 begins to achieve actually important manufacturing volumes over the following yr or so.

Speaking of the Renault 5, on prime of September’s 1,101 items, there have been a handful of items (of unknown amount) delivered over the previous couple of months, so I’ve given it an honorary 1,250 items within the 3-month chart, which places it someplace between the Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4 siblings. Relying on its ramp-up and nation allocation selections, the brand new Renault 5 will seemingly keep within the prime 15 spots within the subsequent couple of months, and regularly rise, maybe into the highest 5 spots, over the following yr or so. Let’s control it.

Outlook

Considerably clumsily in Citroen’s case, the brand new more-affordable small BEVs have lastly arrived in substantial volumes in France, and may now assist carry the EV trajectory for the rest of the yr. As talked about a number of occasions just lately, Europe’s BEV transition will solely correctly resume its upward journey in 2025, when tighter emissions rules come into impact throughout the EU regulatory zone.

France’s broader economic system stays tepid, however much less weak than a lot of its neighbours’. Q2 2024 GDP output was simply 1% up YoY, the most recent inflation figures are at an improved 1.2%, and rates of interest (from the ECB) decreased to three.65%. Manufacturing PMI stays weak, nonetheless, at 44.6 factors in September, from 43.9 factors in August.

With the brand new Citroen e-C3 and Renault 5 now lastly reaching shoppers, what are your ideas on the 2024 EV transition trajectory for France? As a reminder, 2021 full yr noticed 9.8% BEV share, 2022 noticed 13.3%, and 2023 noticed 16.8%. As of now, 2024 yr to this point stands at 17.1%. With these new fashions, will BEV share attain near 19% for full yr 2024? Tell us within the feedback beneath.