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The long-running seminar sequence for India’s utility professionals by the India Good Grid Discussion board closed with hydrogen. The hype glitter is beginning to tarnish, however there’s nonetheless a variety of substance-less shiny noise across the molecule. To that finish, I stepped by the challenges and why hydrogen is nearly all the time a dearer selection than present, commercialized alternate options for power purposes.
The video presentation is embedded beneath, and a flippantly edited transcript with slides follows.
Reji Kumar (RK): Good morning, good afternoon, good night to all of the members and it’s our subsequent version of this webinar. We’re joyful to schedule. Now that is on hydrogen. So lots of you have got seen a number of waves of hydrogen, perhaps for the final 30-40 years, totally different waves of hydrogen. And the hydrogen financial system, individuals have been speaking about it for the reason that Nineteen Eighties, so none of them turned very profitable. Billions of traders’ {dollars} have gone down the prepare. There are answers, there are applied sciences, however not competing with different present applied sciences. And at present the final wave of hydrogen we began about 5 years in the past, lots of of billions of {dollars} have been dedicated for inexperienced hydrogen which will likely be produced from renewable power by electrolyzers and that hydrogen will likely be compressed to -260 diploma centigrade and transported to totally different areas for various use circumstances. Sounds very power inefficient.
When you take a look at the full power within the worth chain of hygiene manufacturing, together with transportation, individuals speaking about working, the truth is experimented working trains, hydrogen trains in absolutely electrified tracks, issues have gone to that extent. We don’t know who’s guiding these items, who’s investing in these applied sciences. And all inexperienced hydrogen manufacturing has, by electrolyzer, concerned essential minerals that are brief in provide. The tasks which have been dedicated and tasks for which funding has been dedicated to finish. And people electrolysis, the uncommon supplies which will likely be produced within the subsequent 50 years, will not be ample. And one other research which Barnard had performed early this yr says that nearly 99% of the tasks that are introduced, there aren’t any consumers as a result of it’s very costly.
So he’ll take us by as we speak within the webinar concerning the precise economics and dynamics of inexperienced hydrogen. Over to Michael.
Michael Barnard (MB): Thanks, Reji, and as all the time, thanks to the ISGF as effectively for permitting me to take part in a small manner in helping the nice nation of India to search out that path that features each prosperity in your, for all and local weather motion.
So that is an fascinating cowl web page. It’s a grade seven pupil. He’s making hydrogen in a faculty lab as a result of that’s concerning the age, grade seven, round twelve years outdated, the place youngsters make hydrogen in class. And this results in a variety of misperceptions. The misperception is, effectively, if youngsters can do it’s low cost, it’s straightforward, and due to this fact it’s going to scale and turn out to be economically viable in its place. They let it on fireplace. They see the power. Sadly, that leads a complete bunch of individuals down a backyard path. That is really a canopy graphic from a brief story of a devoted hydrogen power researcher that I wrote, which went by each single small backwater of hydrogen and confirmed why all of them had been uneconomic and unviable in comparison with alternate options.
So I’m going to spin you thru among the framing slides from that illustration. Often any individual says, effectively, you missed x. And I’m considering, no, I didn’t. I spent a variety of time each a part of hydrogen, partially as a result of it’s fascinating, partially as a result of why are we spending a lot time on it, together with this seminar, when it’s not match for objective? Now, be aware, that’s hydrogen for power, not hydrogen for industrial feedstocks, which it’s. Final framing piece. Hydrogen as we speak is a local weather change drawback on the dimensions of all aviation. We use it to refine oil, we use it to make fertilizer, we use it to make methanol, we use it to do a bunch of different stuff. And hydrogen as we speak is an enormous carbon bomb.
And so we now have this actual disconnect between fixing a local weather drawback versus fixing different local weather issues. So I’m going to begin out with. I’ve created these framework charts. They’re simply little framework charts. They’re quite simple. They’ve a, you realize, continuum. On this case, it’s costly, which goes to be a recurrent theme versus cheaper, they usually have soiled versus clear. So after you take a look at every of those charts, simply have a look on the labels to see what the measurement is. And so that is manufacturing hydrogen. It’s problematic. , we are able to have soiled and low cost, soiled and comparatively low cost hydrogen. Simply bye. Utilizing steam reformation of pure fuel, or coal fuel, the 2 main strategies, or oil, even any hydrocarbon, to separate the hydrogen out and make a bunch of carbon dioxide, which will get made into the environment.
And that’s nonetheless. That’s the most affordable hydrogen that exists, and it’s 99.9% of all hydrogen manufactured as we speak. Now, we are able to add carbon seize to steam reformation, however that makes it fairly a bit dearer. Then there’s one thing known as pyrolysis, which is definitely thermolysis, as an knowledgeable within the expertise instructed me not too long ago, the place we put methane right into a sealed chamber within the absence of oxygen, and we warmth it up, and it turns into three tons of black carbon and a ton of hydrogen. So it’s actually a producing mechanism for black carbon, which we don’t want that a lot of, however but once more, dearer than steam reformation of methane. However it’s cleaner. Pure fuel pyrolysis, whereas a lifeless finish, in addition to a lot of the others, is problematic.
After which we even have low carbon electrolysis. In precise low carbon electrolysis, we are able to’t simply use grid electrical energy, as a result of grid electrical energy isn’t clear sufficient to make it really decrease carbon than simply making hydrogen from pure fuel utilizing the dirtiest mechanism, the grid electrical energy. What we require is a trifecta of additionality. Additionality, which implies we add the identical quantity of power within the type of renewables to the grid close to the. That we want. For the hydrogen, we want temporality, which implies the renewables are producing electrical energy similtaneously the hydrogen is required, after which we require locality, which is the hydrogen. The renewables are in the identical area of the grid because the hydrogen is being manufactured.
The explanation for these three necessities is that if we take a grimy grid, like proper now in Europe, Poland remains to be utilizing a variety of coal. It has some insufficient plans to get off of them with nuclear, however. And it’ll finally be taught that it wants a variety of renewables. If individuals made hydrogen in Poland utilizing the grid and simply constructed a bunch of wind farms and photo voltaic farms in Spain, the hydrogen manufactured in Poland would nonetheless be filthy, and it could add necessities for electrical energy in a excessive carbon grid, which might be met by carbon sources. That’s why the three causes are there, they usually add challenges when it comes to doing this proper now, it’s an issue for a lot of issues. Then there’s white hydrogen. Proper now, there’s a variety of hype about geological sources of hydrogen. However there’s sources, after which there’s confirmed sources. The truth that there’s some hydrogen down there doesn’t imply that it’s recoverable economically, and it doesn’t imply it’s recoverable economically.
And within the volumes which are required, the largest ones which have been recognized are simply not that large, they usually’re unproven sources. There’s an estimation of how a lot hydrogen is in there, however that doesn’t imply we are able to recuperate it. To provide you a evaluate and distinction, one of many widespread methods that’s used within the oil and fuel trade is enhanced oil restoration, the place we put carbon dioxide down a tactile oil effectively to unlock a complete bunch of the unrecoverable useful resource that’s in there. Identical factor with hydrogen. It is available in a wide range of kinds underground. We don’t know the way a lot we’ll be capable to get out of it. And most of these sources aren’t wherever close to the place hydrogen is required. That’s an issue.
So form of the following drawback with hydrogen is definitely storing it. The extra this one’s dense versus diffuse, an enormous drawback with hydrogen, and cheaper versus costly. The large drawback with hydrogen is it’s one of many least dense gases within the universe. It’s proper down there. It’s simply the molecules don’t need to be very shut collectively. They separate and scattered like a pack of kittens you place down, they usually simply all run in several instructions. As a room temperature fuel, it’s extremely diffuse. It’s comparatively low cost to retailer, however you may’t retailer very a lot of it. And that is form of an issue. You all the time hear the factor. Properly, it’s extremely power dense, however that’s by mass. Sadly, hydrogen is just not power dense by quantity. And the quantity is problematic as a result of we are able to’t think about a hydrogen automobile. We will’t tow a zeppelin balloon just like the Goodyear blimp stuffed with hydrogen behind a automobile. We’ve to compress it down.
And in order that will get to the traditional course of, which is pressurizing it to 350 to 700 atmospheres of strain in particular tanks designed for that, utilizing particular compressors. And it is a drawback space that most individuals don’t take into consideration. Most individuals don’t take into consideration compressors, however compressors have gaskets and internals, and the upper the pressures, the extra exactingly they must be machined, the higher the tolerances must be. The dearer the supplies must be. And the extra, the smaller the molecules that they’re compressing, the upper. The extra. The dearer the supplies, the dearer the tolerances, the dearer the machining. And so hydrogen, as a result of it’s such a diffuse fuel and requires such excessive pressures, really has the costliest compressors round for 700 atmospheres of strain. This stuff are non trivial equipment.
I did an evaluation of California’s hydrogen refueling stations, they usually had been seeing important failures, 50% of which had been associated particularly to the compressors. Failing gaskets go on compressors for hydrogen on a regular basis and have to get replaced. They’re not low cost. They’re probably the most costly elements on this course of. They’re up there when it comes to expense with the very costly storage mechanisms, with the very costly storage mechanism we’re right here. So this nonetheless isn’t very dense. A Toyota Mirai has nearly 5 kilograms of hydrogen, the power equal of about 5 gallons of gasoline in a tank, at 700 atmospheres. It’s fairly a exceptional testimony to security engineering that none of them have exploded like a kinetic bomb. So it’s fairly fascinating. So individuals have been on the lookout for different alternate options. Liquid natural hydrogen carriers have been found and been round for a very long time.
They lock hydrogen into one thing that’s extra dense, a liquid, and it’s dearer, and it’s gradual to get in, it’s gradual to get out, and it’s extra energetic necessities. Equally, liquid hydrogen, chilling it right down to about 20 levels above absolute zero, is viable and we do it, but it surely’s additionally dearer. It creates better density. However then you have got one thing which is 290 levels beneath what we take into account a snug temperature. Properly, though I’m chatting with an viewers in New Delhi the place 30 levels Celsius is taken into account a snug temperature. So it’s 300 levels beneath what you take into account a snug temperature, and it boils off, and it’s extremely problematic. Then we get to metallic hydride storage, the place it locks it right into a metallic substrate, and that’s much more costly and extra problematic when it comes to getting the hydrogen out and in.
Every of those will increase the quantity of power required to do that. For instance, liquid hydrogen, about 30% of the power that’s saved as liquid hydrogen is. Is required to show hydrogen into liquid hydrogen. So that is a part of the issue. Each time we open up a part of the issue of hydrogen, it simply will get increasingly costly to resolve the issues. And there’s increasingly issues. There are answers, however they’re not low cost options. And expense issues as a result of hydrogen is competing with different alternate options. It’s competing with direct grid tied electrification. And, you realize, for these, I’m positive the entire individuals on this name know that India is on observe to have its heavy freight rail absolutely electrified with overhead wires. This yr, Reji talked about rail. Properly, guess what? We’ve been electrifying rail instantly for over 100 years. That is trivial expertise.
We all know easy methods to do it. We all know easy methods to ship the power that manner. Hydrogen doesn’t have a play there, and but individuals make the assertion. Equally for automobiles, batteries, or warmth pumps, et cetera, et cetera. And so they’re all less expensive. All these approaches which are alternate options to hydrogen are less expensive and extra dependable than utilizing hydrogen.
So there’s transferring it round. Transferring your hydrogen round as a result of it’s as soon as once more so diffuse is one other place the place it’s costly. The one low cost approach to transfer hydrogen round is to ship the feedstocks, water, and electrical energy, within the case of inexperienced hydrogen, pure fuel, within the case of unabated grey hydrogen, to the place the hydrogen is required. And to be clear, 85% of all hydrogen consumed globally as we speak, about 100 to 120 million tons we manufacture, 85% is manufactured on the level the place it’s used.
And that’s as a result of transferring it round is de facto costly. The following most cost-effective manner is hydrogen pipelines, and that is nonetheless cheaper, by the way in which. I’ll simply say that making hydrogen the place it’s used, we use none of it for power as we speak as a result of alternate options, together with simply utilizing electrical energy instantly, are nonetheless cheaper on a per. , choose your. Choose your unit of power on a per BtU, on a per MMBTU, on a per megajoule, per kilowatt hour. It’s all the time cheaper to make use of the pure fuel or the electrical energy instantly somewhat than make hydrogen after which use the hydrogen for power, you realize, that’s why, you realize, the mass majority of hydrogen autos on this planet as we speak are utilizing grey hydrogen, and it’s costing them wherever from $15 to $35 per kilogram to replenish. It’s simply not low cost. However hydrogen pipelines exist.
There are a few of them in Germany, within the industrial space, the place they go from a steam reformation facility to a plant, and there’s some in america the place they go from steam reformation crops to refineries. However these hydrogen pipelines in Germany carrying fossil hydrogen, that’s unabated, they’re charging $6 to $8 US per kilo for that. And that’s the most affordable hydrogen that may exist. The pipelines aren’t very lengthy. They’re industrial scale pipelines carrying industrial scale volumes of hydrogen, and but it’s nonetheless $6 to $8 per kilogram for that hydrogen. After which we get into different increasingly costly methods to maneuver hydrogen round. Hydrogen tube vans, principally carrying pressurized gaseous hydrogen. Properly, you want about 14 of them to hold as a lot as a diesel gas tube truck, and that’s simply not a possible or real looking approach to ship hydrogen.
Liquid hydrogen tankers, liquefying hydrogen and placing it in tanks that drive on roads with college buses, is definitely being severely proposed. And to be clear, we do it, however we do it in very particular circumstances the place we want liquid hydrogen as the one factor that may work. And really specifically educated individuals ship that at excessive value. Then there’s the proposal of the liquid hydrogen service, liquid natural hydrogen service tankers, whether or not that’s, you realize, ammonia or one thing else, you realize, another service. And I simply maintain stepping on the energetic amount of these items. It simply will get very costly.
I labored out that if we shipped ammonia, for instance, it could be 9 instances as costly per unit of power for Japan because the coal it’s supposed to exchange. That’s with grime low cost hydrogen. And each good thing about the doubt is simply costly to ship hydrogen. So we don’t do it as we speak, and we’re not going to do a lot of it tomorrow. Then there’s hydrogen tanker ships, the place individuals suggest to liquefy hydrogen and put it in tankers, and any individual’s demonstrated that it’s simply extremely costly. I labored out that it could be 5 instances as costly for transport as liquid pure fuel in a single case. So that is form of the issue. It’s less expensive to ship electrical energy to locations than it’s to ship hydrogen to locations. And the wires largely exist already the place we really want power, we have to beef them up. We have to beef up the transformers and converters, however that’s simply the character of the beast.
Then there’s security and the way we really use hydrogen. You don’t hear many tales, though some, about hydrogen failures.
One of many large causes is that largely we make hydrogen the place it’s utilized in industrial settings, the place individuals know easy methods to use hydrogen safely, they usually have hydrogen sensors, they usually have all kinds of security procedures. However even there, I feel it was Linde, one of many large hydrogen suppliers in Europe, not too long ago had a bit of little bit of a security drawback. You might need heard about it just because there’s plenty of information as of late about individuals not with the ability to get hydrogen. So hydrogen fleets being suspended, like hydrogen trains in Germany are unable to run as a result of they’ll’t get hydrogen. Hydrogen vans and hydrogen college buses and hydrogen automobiles are begging for hydrogen as a result of there’s no hydrogen. And why?
Properly, as a result of a tanker of gaseous hydrogen in a Linde plant that was being crammed with hydrogen for supply to a fueling station, had what’s known as a deflagration occasion, which is a subsonic explosion. Mainly, it caught fireplace and exploded, which is an issue with hydrogen, extra so than with diesel or gasoline. And so they had some harm that blew out a variety of home windows inside a big radius and broken among the facility. In order that they needed to shut it down they usually needed to recall all of the tube tankers security checks. And in order we get from right here, secure up right here, secure, making hydrogen the place it’s used unsafe, just about every little thing else is questionable, viable versus unviable when it comes to utilizing hydrogen as an power service. So liquid hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, truck refueling.
, Daimler is exploring this with Linde in Europe, and it’s only a foolish concept. Transferring liquid hydrogen round in vans to place into different vans, to drive round on highways to hold Kleenex is simply not a smart concept. After we can simply use electrical energy and batteries, that’s vastly safer and far much less more likely to explode. I simply learn an evaluation of 1 proposal for a liquid hydrogen for a hydrogen refueling station in Europe, the place they superimposed the security setbacks for people lives not being misplaced and important infrastructure harm not occurring as two radiuses round this factor, and seemed on the variety of residences and buildings round that. And but this proposed hydrogen refueling station security wasn’t even a requirement of the remit. Hydrogen is a extremely explosive fuel. We use it industrially, in massive portions, the place we now have particular security measures in place.
And like many harmful substances, we all know how to try this. We all know how to try this in industrial settings with extremely educated individuals, not in fuel stations and never round different individuals. We don’t put large quantities of ammonia beside a faculty. We shouldn’t put large quantities of hydrogen beside a faculty both.
Hydrogen for constructing warmth. That’s only a weird idea. I simply spent 90 minutes speaking with one of many world’s specialists on pure fuel in properties, and pure fuel leaks on a regular basis. He. He’s the chair of the World Carbon Venture, which yearly produces the emissions and budgets for all greenhouse gases, their carbon funds, their methane funds, and now they’ve a hydrogen funds.
And a part of his analysis traditionally has been to measure pure fuel home equipment in residences to see how a lot methane is being emitted, but additionally what number of different pollution are being emitted. Now, the methane leakage is already important. Methane slippage from issues that burn methane, you realize, unburnt methane popping out of issues that are theoretically burning it, is kind of excessive, however methane really doesn’t explode that simply. It solely explodes simply sufficient that 4000 buildings a yr are considerably broken or destroyed in pure fuel fires and explosions in america. Now, 4000 towards a constructing inventory for a rustic of 330,000,000 individuals, perhaps that doesn’t sound like a lot, however hydrogen, per the perfect evaluation out there with security measures, can be 4 instances as more likely to have explosions and unsafe situations as methane as a result of the molecule is smaller. , our infrastructure that’s delivering fuel to properties is just not designed for tinier molecules than methane. And hydrogen is simply the Houdini of molecules. It likes to get out of locations. It likes to embrittle stuff.
Equally, hydrogen security, placing 20 diploma Kelvin hydrogen within the fuselage, the place it could be required due to the character of aerodynamic balancing contained in the fuselage with human beings, is only a recipe for a catastrophe. It’s simply very troublesome to sq. the security of human passengers with liquid hydrogen as a gas. And but persons are severely reporting it. It’s a kind of circumstances the place it’s uncertifiable and certification and aviation is essential. So whereas there’s a variety of dialogue about it it’s simply not going to occur.
And ammonia as a transport gas. That’s a recipe for catastrophe as effectively. Ammonia, which is one nitrogen, three hydrogen, burns cleanly, which is to say it burns with out emitting greenhouse gases, however with plenty of nitrous oxides. Ammonia, because it sits, is poisonous to people. And when it mixes with water, which ships are round, it turns right into a extremely corrosive substance, which, if we breathe, will destroy our lungs. After which after that, it turns into a unique substance, which is simply unhealthy for human well being and for wildlife well being. So ammonia as a transport gas, as a hydrogen power service, is a non starter. It’s a ship that received’t float. And it’s simply exceptional to see the quantity of consideration that it will get. So security is a priority and it provides expense.
We will do any of these items with an inexpensive diploma of security and limitless lack of human life. Nevertheless it prices an terrible lot greater than alternate options to attain security with these applied sciences, which provides to the dearth of viability, then, for floor transportation, costly, cheaper, inefficient, environment friendly.
Let’s simply take a look at the alternate options right here up right here. Hydrogen gas for trucking. Properly, hydrogen gas for trucking. As soon as once more, we’re seeing $15 to $35. That’s for grey hydrogen delivered to vans.
The refueling stations in California are an abject lesson. They’ve 55 refueling stations for public autos. And people refueling stations as of 2021. I did the evaluation of their highest use, most mature interval that was public document, which was six months in 2021, after 5 to 6 years of operation. And I discovered that the hydrogen refueling stations had been out of service for 2000 extra hours once they had been pumping hydrogen.
Hydrogen refueling stations fail regularly as a result of it’s laborious to retailer and pressurize hydrogen. As soon as once more, these compressors go commonly. This provides to the price. The price of delivering hydrogen to refueling stations is a really important addition to the price. Farming of power did a research and mentioned the price of simply delivering hydrogen by tube truck to a refueling station would add $8 to $10 to the price of the hydrogen. So it doesn’t matter what it prices to make the hydrogen, it doesn’t matter what it prices to pump the hydrogen, and to take care of the price of the low reliability of refueling stations. It’s $8 to $10 per kilogram simply to get the hydrogen to the refueling station. It’s as soon as once more non viable.
Hydrogen buses have comparable issues. I did an evaluation of California’s bus fleet as a result of they’ve been experimenting with this. There are pockets of irrationality round hydrogen. Their hydrogen buses are 50% much less dependable than their diesel buses and twice as unreliable as their battery electrical buses. Diesel buses will likely be out of service for x hours. A hydrogen bus will likely be out of service for x hours instances 1.5. So one and a half instances the hours out of service as a result of they’re simply not working. Gas cells are finicky issues. A gas cell requires pure hydrogen at a selected time, you realize, moderately temperature, with no pollution like water or different substances. It requires pure air. It requires air that’s bone dry and freed from pollution.
Reaching that in a bus or a truck that drives by metropolis streets with all of the particulate matter and the entire air air pollution in cities, it has to filter that right down to hospital grade working theater air high quality and temperature to ensure that the gas cell to not degrade and fail quickly. Buses in Spain that had been delivered, effectively, unintentionally, some coolant from one other a part of the drivetrain obtained into the gas cells and destroyed the gas cells solely. And the buses have by no means moved. So there’s 5 buses, I neglect the town in Spain, it’s not Barcelona, it’s one of many different ones, however they obtained buses they usually’re simply sitting there. They’re bricks. It is a drawback with hydrogen. It’s simply laborious to make issues work. We will do it, however they’re much less dependable than alternate options. And reliability provides cash.
Hydrogen powered trains, identical factor. I’ve talked about trains, principally. Overhead wires, batteries for the bits that may’t be performed. It simply is sensible. India is to date forward of the remainder of the world, even forward of China on electrifying trains, that I received’t speak about it.
And naturally, down right here we now have the alternate options. Properly, can we now have battery energy vans? Sure, and we do. Can we now have battery electrical buses? Sure, and we do. Can we now have electrical trains? Sure. And so they’re environment friendly and cheaper. And so, you realize, as soon as once more, it’s a contest. Hydrogen is just not the one approach to do most issues, and it’s definitely not the one approach to do issues in power. And each time we ask the query, we now have to say, what are the alternate options? Are they economically advantageous? And the reply is all the time sure.
Then there’s maritime transport, one other purported space. So costly, cheaper, viable, unviable. Again to ammonia powered transport. I’ve talked about this. It’s nuts. Then there’s liquid hydrogen powered transport. I’ll say this. I spend a variety of time wanting on the maritime trade. I spend a variety of time speaking to maritime professionals about repowering stuff. I’ve been flown to Glasgow to debate maritime decarbonization. I’ve spoken to individuals on the Maersk McKinney Institute for Maritime Decarbonization. Folks from the Wallenius group simply interviewed me for what must be performed round maritime transport. And I’ve obtained a projection of maritime transport decarbonization by 2100. I’m removed from knowledgeable, however I’m pretty deep on this topic. And the factor I’ll say is a bunch of suppose tanks are speaking about liquid hydrogen and the maritime trade is ignoring liquid hydrogen. Yeah, they’re not silly.
They take a look at it and go, wait, you need us to do what with that stuff? And also you need us to energy ships with that? That’s simply foolish, man. Like perhaps Maersk does it and we discover out that it’s low cost. However till then, please go away. No one is utilizing liquid hydrogen to energy ships. And but suppose tanks maintain proposing it.
Methanol as a transport gas. Methanol is principally wooden alcohol. It’s a kind of alcohols that should you drink it, you go blind and die. So don’t do this. And it’s a reasonably widespread industrial substance as we speak and a local weather change drawback as we speak. And it does burn modified ship engines like an alcohol would. It’s really okay, but it surely’s solely about 45% the power density of maritime variable sulfur gas oil. It’s dearer, so it’s competing with alternate options. And the alternate options embrace battery powered transport.
Proper now there are a few 700 unit container ships crusing the Yangtze on thousand kilometer routes which are working on batteries. They’re batteries in containers which are winched out of the ship, placed on shore to be charged, plugged in, similar to fridge automobiles. Fridge containers and charged fridge charged battery containers are winched onto the ship and plugged in simply the identical manner fridge containers. Reefers are as we speak. And batteries are slowly taking up the underside finish of transport. And so they’re going to all inland transport, most brief sea transport. My projection is that battery hybrid transport with biodiesel will take over the complete house for batteries. We’ll run the ships in ports and nationwide waters to attenuate air air pollution and noise air pollution for all of the residents and the marine life close to shore and crossing oceans. They’ll burn biofuels.
And the biofuel, I anticipate, will likely be biodiesel. There’s arguments which are cheap to counsel that we’ll find yourself with methanol, biomethanol as a transport gas, however we definitely received’t find yourself with methanol synthesized from inexperienced ammonia. Biomethanol is less expensive than methanol synthesized from inexperienced ammonia. So we’re not going to finish up utilizing synthesized methanol or any synthesized gas. It simply doesn’t make any sense as a result of it’s dearer and no one’s going to pay extra for one thing which doesn’t do extra. And artificial methanol doesn’t do greater than biologically sourced methanol.
So aviation, costly, cheaper, certifiable, uncertifiable. Now, certifiable doesn’t imply they’re loopy. It doesn’t imply we’re placing them into an asylum to help them to recuperate their psychological well being, to search out the appropriate temper stabilizers and prescribed drugs and discuss remedy to help them to reintegrate with society.
It signifies that operators can fly a licensed machine with human beings inside it as a business service, or they’ll fly machines with packages inside them as a business service over locations the place there are individuals. So every little thing above tiny plane needs to be licensed. Should be licensed by nationwide aviation boards. Most aviation boards globally respect and undertake a certification. If the FAA does it or EASA does it, then many simply respect and undertake these and say the nationwide certification boards undertake these. I might say if there are any aviation individuals on board from India related to India’s equal of the FAA, it’s best to actually rethink grandfathering FAA licensed planes as a result of the FAA was captured by Boeing, and it’s only a actual drawback space proper now in aviation. However certification is required, and it’s costly.
It’s an n-times-n course of that claims you must manufacture, design planes in a sure manner, manufacture planes in a manner that’s secure, after which check all of the failure situations in an n-times-n manner in flight assessments to show {that a} airplane received’t fall over the sky and kill individuals. The Boeing Max disasters that killed lots of of individuals had been a failure of certification as a result of Boeing captured the FAA over time. However as we undergo these, battery powered aviation is simple. We all know the failure situations of batteries and batteries to electrical motors have nearly no transferring elements. An n-times-n certification course of for a quite simple plane, like a battery, electrical one is less expensive than a extra complicated one.
Biofuelled aviation simply replaces kerosene that’s used as we speak with biologically sourced kerosene that’s really very easy to certify as effectively, as a result of it’s only a widespread pathway, the identical molecules, totally different sources, and each main, producer, civil aviation plane, is certifying their planes on certifiable aviation, unsustainable aviation gas that come from biofuels as we speak. We similar to, take a look at the widespread carriers. They’re all doing it. We’re bunkering, you realize, thousands and thousands of tons of biofuel, sustainable aviation fuels as we speak.
Now, up right here, efuels. That is artificial kerosene produced from inexperienced hydrogen after which mixed into making the attributes of kerosene. Kerosene being a form of a classifier of attributes, not an actual particular chemical system. And you are able to do that. It’s simply actually costly. It’s straightforward to certify as a result of it’s precise, it’s nearly equivalent to the jet gas that’s used as we speak. It’s simply as certifiable as biofuel powered aviation.
Nevertheless it’s simply going to be actually costly. Biofuels are two to 3 instances as costly as present fossil fuels. Usually, e fuels are 4 to 6 instances as costly. And if a service has the choice between, if it’s compelled to pay two to 3 instances, that’s one factor, however they’re not going to pay 4 to 6 instances if they’ve a two to 3 instances value different. So let me recover from into stuff that simply doesn’t make any sense. Hydrogen fuel and liquid hydrogen. The failure situations are so excessive and the design transformations for aviation are so excessive to keep away from failure situations as a result of these issues, simply make it a non viable to certify.
I’ll say that the certification individuals have to be having a area day, as a result of usually they’re over right here in rather well trodden pathways, they’re filling in checklists which have been crammed in lots of and 1000’s of instances earlier than. Over right here, daily they discover a new manner for an airplane to go increase or fall into the sky and kill lots of people, they usually must provide you with assessments to validate that it received’t happen. That’s an thrilling factor for the certifiers to do, which is why the certification businesses are spending a lot time on it. However that doesn’t imply it’s going to result in certification for plane. So you may get actually costly, uncertifiable plane, or you may get plane that look loads like those as we speak, and battery electrical ones, and get there and resolve the local weather drawback.
So then there’s warmth. I’ll simply say that burning hydrogen to make warmth works. No one does it as we speak as a result of it’s actually costly. There’s some stuff you must change that traits of the flame are totally different. You must change a bunch of stuff. That’s all simply pretty minor engineering, but it surely’s costly. In the meantime, individuals say, what about excessive temperature warmth? Properly, electrical plasmas, we now have the temperature of the solar underneath our management with commoditized expertise we are able to ship as we speak and combine into warmth. Electrical arc heating, we already use that for metal manufacturing. EMF heating, resistance heating, as much as 600, 800 levels Celsius. I talked to the previous chief technical officer of Kanthal, now the EVP for international enterprise growth, a few years in the past. Yeah, their product is only a resistance heating aspect that goes to 600 to 800 levels.
Thermal storage, now infrared heating. We’ve district heating and cooling. We’ve warmth pumps. Each single vary of heating may be performed with electrical energy. It will not be trivial or cheap to alter one thing which is designed for fossil fuels to run on electrical energy, however all new services ought to be designed from the bottom as much as run solely on electrical energy. Matter of reality, after I converse to Paul Martin, all of them are. It’s solely when the enterprise case is dedicated that they add fuel the place it’s essential to make the enterprise case. And in order we transfer ahead right into a decarbonized world and carbon pricing applies to fossil fuels, these applied sciences are all there. They’re all business as we speak. They’re all utterly dependable, commodified issues. We’re simply not utilizing them as a result of burning fossil fuels and utilizing the environment as an open sewer is cheaper. Hydrogen doesn’t have a play right here. It’s simply all the time going to be dearer and loads more durable and loads much less secure than simply utilizing electrical alternate options.
So then grid storage, identical drawback, hydrogen grid storage, it’s “I have a hydrogen molecule. What else can I do with it?” It’s like having a Swiss military knife. Oh, what does this little blade do? Oh, it’s a protracted length power storage. Yeah, hydrogen for lengthy length power storage. Properly, no, for shorter length storage, we now have cell based mostly battery grid storage. Big, big market as of late. Very profitable. We’ve redox stream applied sciences, that are commercializing as we speak. I sat on the advisory board of 1. We’ve pumped hydro, which is rising radically.
Within the grid storage dialogue, I identified how huge the useful resource India was really useful to the ISGF, that they reopen the research into grid storage as a result of off river, closed loop grids, pumped hydro grid storage is very easy to construct and it’s match for objective. Then we now have biomethane. We had this large drawback. A part of the rationale I used to be chatting with the pinnacle of the worldwide carbon venture, Rob Jackson, this week was as a result of we’re emitting large quantities of excessive international warming potential methane as we speak from our agricultural meals waste stream processes. Rice farming, for instance, India, but additionally meals waste. We throw away a full third of the meals we manufacture yearly that leads to landfills or middens, the place it’s piled, decomposes anaerobically and creates methane. So our land administration processes are produced, for instance, beef cattle and ruminants, with their belching of methane from their digestive processes.
Properly, the methane from that supply is twice as large because the methane emissions from the fossil gas trade, which have been climbing radically. We’ve to attenuate our biomethane as a result of it’s an enormous international warming drawback. And my principle is we simply seize it at level sources like dairy barns and landfills and different stuff, and we fill our strategic pure fuel reserves with biomethane as a substitute. After which after we want that strategic reserve of fuel, of power, we simply burn biomethane. I feel that makes much more sense than manufacturing hydrogen. But when hydrogen finally ends up being the foolish factor, if individuals begin manufacturing salt caverns and creating, you realize, coping with all that, it’s the. It’s not essentially the most urgent drawback.
We’ve applied sciences for every little thing, besides we’ve obtained commercialized, generally used, very dependable applied sciences for every little thing besides strategic power shops for lengthy regional outages of wind and photo voltaic.
This all turns into my hydrogen demand projection by 2100. You’ll discover that not like each different hydrogen demand projection you’ve ever seen, it goes down as a result of inexperienced hydrogen is much more costly than unabated grey hydrogen. Blue hydrogen is double the price of unabated present hydrogen. That signifies that because the feedstock value goes up for industrial processes, the place we use it, our expectation of utilizing it, individuals will discover alternate options. There are alternate options to hydrogen in some circumstances. In different circumstances, there aren’t any alternate options. But when the price goes up, individuals will say, effectively, how else can I obtain the identical outcomes? Oh, effectively, let’s do this.
However much more, take a look at this large chunk right here, these two classes. The most important shoppers of hydrogen as we speak are oil refineries. They use it to strip impurities out of hydrogen, like sulfur. And so they additionally use it to crack hydrogen into, or crack crude oil into lighter and heavier parts. The heavier and the upper sulfur, the crude, which is to say Alberta oil sands crude, the extra hydrogen you must use. For mild, candy crude, you must use a kilogram or a kilogram and a half per barrel of oil, for Alberta’s product you must use seven or 8 kilograms per barrel of oil. We’re going to cease extracting and refining a variety of our oil. We’re going to get right down to solely extracting oil for petrochemicals. And the petrochemicals, the oil we’re going to extract is usually going to be lighter, low sulfur, as a result of we now have plenty of oil.
So we’re not going to be consuming practically as a lot hydrogen in oil refineries. And that’s going to occur pretty rapidly. The heaviest, lowest high quality crudes, like Venezuela’s and Alberta’s, will likely be first off the market. In order that’s going to plummet. That is fertilizer, the following greatest demand space. And we now have alternate options for lots of fertilizer. Low tillage agriculture requires much less fertilizer. Drone based mostly crop spraying of fertilizers requires loads much less fertilizer. Agrigenetics is displacing fertilizer additions with genetically modified microbes, which exist already within the soil, which already repair nitrogen within the soil for crops. However they’ve a nitrogen sensor. They only flip off the nitrogen sensor, and it simply retains making extra nitrogen on the roots of crops. It’s very environment friendly.
Final time I spoke to Karsten Temme, the PhD geneticist who heads Pivot Bio, they had been on the level the place they had been seeing one million acres of corn underneath administration in america, they usually’re lowering fertilizer necessities by 25%. Their objective is 100% throughout rice, corn, and grain by 2030, stretch goal, however a extremely good sound chunk. So we’re going to be pulling all these levers, as a result of fertilizer goes to get dearer as we decarbonize fertilizer, an enormous local weather drawback as we speak as a result of it’s produced from pure fuel. Pure fuel turns into hydrogen. We put the hydrogen into the Haber Bosch course of to mix with air from the environment to make ammonia to make fertilizer. We’re going to scale back that. So important declining calls for within the greatest supply demand areas for hydrogen.
Metal is a possible space. I’ve at present obtained it there. Making hydrogen, making new metal with hydrogen. Properly, the hydrogen replaces coal in lowering the iron ore, which de rusts it principally into iron. That’s all it does. And there’s a requirement level there. However we now have alternate options there which are direct electrification, Boston Metals and Fortescue utilizing molten oxide electrolysis obtain the identical outcomes with no hydrogen step. And principally anyplace the place they cannot use hydrogen, as we now have an alternative choice to hydrogen, we’re most likely going to make use of it. It needs to be cheaper. And so proper now I’ve elevated demand for hydrogen for metal making in my projection, however that’s in danger. Ultimately sport I feel we’re solely going to have 80 million tons of hydrogen that we use in our financial system, versus the underneath 120 million tons that we use as we speak.
We nonetheless have to scrub it up. It’s nonetheless an enormous local weather drawback space. We nonetheless want all of the work on electrolysis for this market of high-priced hydrogen.
That’s it. Let’s discuss. Any questions, Reji?
RK: I might request you to provide the most recent standing of the introduced inexperienced hydrogen tasks and consumers, the dedicated consumers and what timber, what proportion of complete tasks that are financially near tasks that are underneath some stage of growth or building, and who’ve signed as much as purchase the inexperienced hydrogen. At what worth? What statistics do you have got?
MB: So a yr in the past, Boston Consulting Group printed with Oxford World Tasks a form of a white paper on easy methods to make inexperienced hydrogen tasks as low threat as potential. Not low threat, simply decrease threat. And so they included a bunch of statistics, about 1300 tasks that Boston Consulting Group had of their database. These 1300 tasks, I feel it was solely 0.7% by tonnage really reached last funding determination and operation. It was solely 5% by variety of bulletins, however solely 0.7% by tonnages really reached last funding determination. So we don’t have a state of affairs the place they’re getting by, as a result of as they undergo last funding determination, due diligence, they really must put actual numbers into spreadsheets, not imaginary consensus numbers about low cost hydrogen.
They really have to really value stuff. After which once they do this, they discover out that hydrogen is dear, which we’ve recognized for a very long time. I simply assisted Professor Joe Romm, who’s working with Michael Mann at College of Pennsylvania with the twentieth version of his guide, The Hype About Hydrogen. Joe Romm did his work 25 years in the past and mentioned, why would we be contemplating this? It’s all the time going to be costly. Bruce McCabe, one other PhD out of Australia, did this work 25 years in the past and mentioned, that is actually costly. As I mentioned, I’m a gradual pupil. I’ve solely performed the maths on this prior to now decade, performed techno financial workups on hydrogen options for the previous ten years. And each time I do it, hydrogen comes out actually costly.
The worth level is fascinating. Boston Consulting Group additionally printed one thing saying, the consensus of €3 per kilogram inexperienced hydrogen in Europe by 2030 is popping out to not be appropriate. It’s going to really be €5 to €8 per kilogram. And I agree it’ll be €6 to €8 to fabricate hydrogen. However that’s not delivering it, that’s simply making it. And so, as soon as once more, each time we now have to retailer it, each time we now have to move it, each time we now have to pump it, the price goes up and up. Security stuff provides prices. So after we hear the price level for hydrogen, you must ask, is it, what’s the price delivered? And the perfect value delivered for shopper functions, for hydrogen, is what’s being paid at fuel pumps around the globe, which is $15 to $35 per kilogram. And that’s for grey hydrogen.
It’s not going to get cheaper than that common worth level. For all of the offers that had been really struck final yr, to Reji’s level, the typical worth level was €9.35 euro cents per kilogram. And that, as soon as once more, simply to fabricate it.
Okay, we now have one other query. Please clarify why hydrogen use serves fossil pursuits. It’s the title of the presentation, so I’m glad you requested. Michael Liebreich says it finest. The fossil gas trade can’t lose by selling hydrogen for power, both. Hydrogen for power turns into a serious a part of our power combine, and we are able to’t make sufficient inexperienced hydrogen in any respect, as a result of it could require vastly extra renewables than we now have as we speak, which might require blue hydrogen, then the fossil gas reserves that the fossil gas trade has is the one supply of all that hydrogen.
And as a way to do this in a considerably low carbon manner, considerably probably not, they’d must do carbon seize and the governments must pay them so as to add carbon seize to their hydrogen manufacture. In order that they win that manner and their hydrocarbon reserves are good and governments and taxpayers give them plenty of cash. Or the opposite manner they win is that they delay actual local weather motion with electrification by one other decade they usually maintain pumping their oil, coal and fuel for an additional decade with out actual motion. It’s an apparent technique for them. As you take a look at the funding for hydrogen advocacy organizations, what you discover is the fossil gas trade is throughout this house. They’re selling hydrogen far past its stage of capability. Do we now have different questions? I do know Puranima Gupta has had their hand up. I’m undecided in the event that they’ve put a query into chat.
What about mixing hydrogen in with pure fuel and present pipelines? This is without doubt one of the nice hopes of the trade. We’re going to place methane, we’re going to place pure fuel into present pure fuel pipelines after which we’re going to scale back the CO2 output of burning pure fuel. And it’s going to be nice. Properly, it’s not. The utmost you may put into pipelines is about 20%, however hydrogen is loads much less dense than pure fuel, so you find yourself with much less power at extra value. You solely get a couple of 7% carbon emissions discount from the utmost combination of pure fuel with hydrogen. In order that’s drawback one. Downside two, pure fuel already leaks right through the distribution system. And the older the distribution system is, the extra it leaks.
Amusingly, I used to be speaking with, as soon as once more, the gentleman who chairs the World Carbon Venture. And he spent fairly a little bit of time in automobiles driving round Boston, Manhattan and Washington with methane sensors on the lookout for leaks. What they discovered is the older elements of the town that had been essentially the most gentrified with essentially the most wealthy individuals had the very best leaks. So it was fairly counterintuitive that it wasn’t an inequitable state of affairs because it usually was. It simply leaks loads. Now, why I deliver this up is methane leaks loads lower than hydrogen. So if you put hydrogen with pure fuel in a pipeline, any leaks that exist are going to disproportionately leak the hydrogen. And who pays for all of the leaking pure fuel as we speak? Properly, shoppers do. It’s undelivered fuel. It’s a part of the expense that utility passes on.
So all that costly hydrogen that goes in with the pure fuel will likely be far more costly, it’ll leak much more and also you’ll pay much more. So it’s simply principally a lifeless finish. It’s fairly fascinating. So present metal pipelines, can we use the prevailing metal pipeline community for hydrogen transportation or do we want some modifications normally? Sure, you want modifications. You are able to do these modifications. The factor with hydrogen is as a result of it needs to be greater strain to ship much less quantity, as a result of as soon as once more, it’s loads much less dense as a fuel. You must pressurize it loads. And pressurizing causes the pipes to flex. Because the pipes flex, we now have micro fractures within the weld joints of the pipes.
Hydrogen does what methane doesn’t, which is it will get into these weld joints and it bonds with the metals and it embrittles them. And so we now have to really cut back our pressurization. We will solely get a couple of third of the power by the identical pipeline with security. Now we are able to get a bit extra by coating the insides. We’ve to coat the insides of all of the pipelines with reasonably costly inner coatings. We’ve to run pigs down them, spray them, check them, and that’s simply to get to the purpose the place we are able to ship a 3rd of the power so we are able to do it. However as soon as once more, far more costly than piping pure fuel, and it requires modifications. And the following bit is all these compressors which are used on the pure fuel pipelines aren’t match for objective for a hydrogen pipeline.
They as soon as once more want greater strain compressors with higher matches. In any other case they’ll leak hydrogen like sieves. So all of the compressors on the pure fuel pipeline have to get replaced after which all of the electronics. Methane doesn’t assault electronics. Hydrogen is de facto reactive. It assaults electronics. You really must get a unique licensed set of sensors and electronics in your hydrogen pipeline than exist on the methane pipeline. So it’s not a slam dunk. You may’t simply say, I’ve obtained a pipe, I’ve obtained pumps. I’ll simply put hydrogen as a substitute of pure fuel. You could have exchange all of your compressors. You must improve all of your electronics. You must coat the within of the pipeline. And guess what? That every one provides value to ship much less power. It’s not a slam dunk. Some other questions?
RK: Madam Puranima Gupta was asking, she remains to be not clear how hydrogen is just not good to decarbonize? It’s good to decarbonize, offered you can also make it cheaper to different applied sciences and in addition the difficulties about storing it and transporting it and total power. Inefficient resolution is what Michael defined within the earlier slide. So the webinar recording will likely be out there in simply two days to all of the individuals who registered. Thanks very a lot, Michael. Good day to you.
MB: Properly, I’ll add one level to that remark. It’s completely essential to decarbonize all of the hydrogen that we at present use and can proceed to make use of for the following many years as industrial feedstocks. Proper now, that’s a local weather drawback we now have to resolve. Inexperienced hydrogen is the reply to it, and that signifies that we now have to try this. However that’s the local weather, that’s the decarbonization resolution we now have to work on for hydrogen, which is lowering it from an issue the dimensions of all aviation globally right down to one thing that’s not the dimensions of all aviation globally. So decarbonization and hydrogen don’t consider it as an answer set. Consider it as an issue space that we now have to resolve. So that might be the factor. Again to you, Reji.
RK: Thanks. Good day. Good night. Good evening to all of the members from India Asia area. Good evening.
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