Mexico EV Gross sales Report: 90% Progress YoY in June Brings EV Market Share to 2.5%! – CleanTechnica – TechnoNews

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Residence to the most important and best auto trade in Latin America, Mexico was a latecomer to the electrification race, presenting marginal EV gross sales till late 2021 (with sub-0.1% BEV market share). Again then, this was a PHEV-focused market, with plug-in hybrids no less than capable of make some presence, and BEVs all however absent from the market. See the next chart for 2021–2022:

The final three years have introduced constant development YoY for EVs (~100% every year). Although, it’s BEV gross sales which have exploded (400% development in 2022, 300% in 2023) whereas PHEV gross sales have grown by a lot much less (~25% development in 2022 and 2023). EV development stays excessive in 2024, and with Mexico changing into an enviornment the place Chinese language EV makers will combat established US producers, it undoubtedly stays one of the vital attention-grabbing markets to comply with. 

Common Market Overview

Thus far, 2024 has introduced constant development in EV gross sales, not solely YoY, but in addition month on month — March, Could and June all introduced new information within the nation.

Market-share sensible, Mexico lags the regional leaders (Costa Rica and Uruguay) and the “second tier” markets (Colombia and Brazil), but it surely’s nonetheless an essential participant, having simply surpassed 2.5% share (2% for BEVs alone) in June, up from 1.2% a 12 months in the past. 

It’s clear from this graph that PHEV gross sales are nearly fixed, and despite the fact that they did enhance YoY, this was as a result of they fell in H1 2023:

We Don’t Know The Market Leaders … However We Can Guess

There was a problem when engaged on this report: we don’t know who’s main the Mexican market.

The knowledge introduced by Mexico’s official establishments solely tracks mannequin gross sales by producers who’ve joined the Mexican Automotive Trade Affiliation … and the probably leaders of the market (Tesla, BYD, and maybe SEV) don’t belong to it. Which means that despite the fact that we now have entry to combination knowledge on EV gross sales, we solely have particular knowledge for fashions from the opposite producers.

Checking that very lengthy record and on the lookout for all of the EVs that cover in there, we discovered that the Volvo EX30 has been an unsurprising success, registering 1,561 items in the course of the first six months of 2023. JAC additionally has a few first rate promoting fashions (the E-Sunray van, with 1,001 gross sales, and the inexpensive E10X, with 874 gross sales), adopted by the ORA 03 (517 gross sales) and the Renault Kwid E-Tech (250 gross sales). The presence of China on this record is plain even with out BYD!

There’s extra info we are able to guess with the obtainable knowledge. Complete BEV gross sales throughout 2024 have amounted to only over 12,000 items, but I solely managed to trace half of them within the record relating to fashions: because of this BYD, Tesla, and SEV personal half of the Mexican EV Market. And despite the fact that SEV has been making an effort to turn out to be a acknowledged model in Mexico, I doubt it’s an enormous participant but. This mainly implies that BYD and Tesla, collectively, are more likely to have no less than 5,000 registrations up to now this 12 months, and maybe a bit extra. I’d wager that above all, the EVs beforehand listed lie under the BYD Seagull, Tesla Mannequin 3, Tesla Mannequin Y, and BYD Music (in all probability in that order).

Ultimately, it’s attention-grabbing to notice the absence of Hyundai/Kia on this record. The Hyundai Kona is absent altogether, the Kia Niro is simply bought as an HEV, and the EV6 and Ioniq 5 have fewer than 60 gross sales every. Kia is planning EV manufacturing in Mexico within the close to future: might or not it’s that it’s ready for native manufacturing to not cannibalize its present factories within the nation?

Mexico Ramping Up EV Manufacturing

Mexico is maybe the one nation on the earth the place gross sales knowledge by mannequin should not available, however automobile manufacturing knowledge is. Which means that despite the fact that we can not current the market leaders so far as registrations go, we do have some attention-grabbing knowledge relating to EV manufacturing up to now this 12 months:

A lot has been mentioned about Chinese language manufacturers coming to provide on Mexican soil, but it surely’s clear for now Mexico stays the turf of US manufacturers, particularly Ford and GM. The growing old Ford Mustang Mach-E is the chief so far as manufacturing goes, however practically 100% of those went to the US or elsewhere (solely 72 have been bought in Mexico); the Ultium siblings comply with carefully behind (with no registrations in Mexico) … and in a distant fourth place, there’s the JAC E-Sunray van.

Mexican manufacturing is decided in the beginning by US demand, so not a lot will be learn into this knowledge relating to Mexico particularly. Nevertheless, as one of many important manufacturing hubs in all the Americas, Mexican manufacturing can be utilized as a proxy to seek out out what’s happening in different markets, primarily — however not completely — the US.

An attention-grabbing distinction seems between the ramp-up of the Ultium siblings (Blazer and Equinox EV) and the declining manufacturing of the Mustang Mach-E. The previous are speculated to turn out to be the cornerstone of the Ultium ramp-up for Common Motors and can begin gross sales in Mexico within the following months. Manufacturing peaked in April, however June wasn’t far behind, and, if gross sales sustain, we must always see even bigger numbers within the months to return. I’ve mentioned it earlier than, but it surely bears repeating: I’ve excessive hopes for the Equinox EV within the Latin American market.

(Oh, and don’t let October’s knowledge idiot you. The Blazer had been in manufacturing since early 2023 — Chevrolet merely registered a complete semester’s manufacturing in that one month, and therefore the excessive quantity.) 

In the meantime, the Mach-E has been affected by some critical blues, and manufacturing these days falls far under its peak a 12 months in the past. It frankly surprises me that after a 4-year ramp-up, Ford appears to be unable to each make a revenue on this automobile and promote it at a value that brings sufficient demand to maintain mass manufacturing. If (and it is a large if) GM manages to get a revenue on the Ultium siblings by late 2024, as Ibarra say they’d, it means the corporate could have managed to do in two years what Ford couldn’t do in 4. 

Following our record, so far as JAC goes, its manufacturing provides most of Latin America’s demand for this model, which means each the E-Sunray and the E10X are essentially the most demanded fashions south of the Rio Bravo (whereas the E-Sei 4 and others appears to be on their manner out). This suits the knowledge obtainable in different markets … and albeit surprises me: the E-Sei 4 (E40X in some markets) is one hell of a handsome CUV. 

Ultimately, it appears Jeep is beginning manufacturing of the Wagoneer. I’m not a fan of very massive SUVs, however each EV out there’s one much less ICE automobile, so I want this large Jeep the most effective of luck. Could you eat the market share of your gasoline-thirsty brothers!

Remaining Ideas

Mexico departed from a low base, but it surely’s been rising for a very long time now, sufficient to assert it is a constant pattern. Extra importantly, in addition to YoY development, there was development month on month, which implies the arrival of inexpensive EVs is making a distinction and we’re seeing a continuing enhance in curiosity.

Nevertheless, 2.5% continues to be too low, and significantly so for a market as massive as Mexico. Inertia is a robust pressure, and whereas some smaller markets might change a lot quicker, I’ve my doubts Mexico shall be in a position to take action earlier than vital EV manufacturing ramps up within the nation. The excellent news is: that second shouldn’t be too distant.