Shutting Down Coal & Fuel By Steps, Slides, & Substitutions – India Utilities Seminar Transcript & Slides – CleanTechnica – TechnoNews

Join every day information updates from CleanTechnica on electronic mail. Or comply with us on Google Information!

---

Below the auspices of the India Good Grid Discussion board, the assume tank based as an umbrella group over India’s 28 state utilities to offer thought management, share main practices, and convey worldwide insights to India, I’m delivering bi-weekly webinars framed by the Quick Listing of Local weather Actions That Will Work. With the glories of on-line recordings and AI transcription instruments, it’s comparatively straightforward to share each the transcript and the slides that I used, so I’m making a behavior of it.

 

Reji Pillai (RP): Good morning, good afternoon, good night, welcome you all to the seventh version of this webinar collection at present. Sadly, I’m in an airport, so I’ll preserve my video shut and my speech additionally very brief. As most of you understand, greater than 120 international locations have declared their web zero goal, various from 2045 to 2070. However only a few of them have a roadmap for shutting down their fossil gasoline energy technology crops. In order that is without doubt one of the main milestones for attaining web zero. Nonetheless, individuals are not India. We now have a web zero goal of 2070. So we’ve been arguing that with a view to obtain web zero by 2070, the ability sector needs to be web zero by 2050. So there are numerous new energy crops, I imply previous energy crops which should be shut down. There was totally different dialogues taking place at totally different ranges.

However within the final two 5-year plans, we didn’t plan lots of the coal crops. And the final genuine report, which I learn about, is about 8000 megawatts of latest coal crops will likely be in-built states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, etcetera, to stabilize renewable technology, which they’re at present going through main points. So this was the situation until two months in the past. Within the final month, there are such a lot of coordinates. We hear a couple of new goal. Any person talks about 28,000 megawatts of latest coal technology. Any person talks about 80,000 megawatts of coal technology. So 80, when it got here, I assumed it was a spelling error. I imply, say, error. 8000 is misspelled as 80,000. However this renewed vigor in new coal crops India is one thing actually worrying. And we don’t know what’s genuine and official, however there’s no phrase from the ministries or wherever.

However there may be lots of speak occurring. And the identical is the case with many different international locations. On one facet, we’ve been speaking about web zero and transferring utterly to renewables and inexperienced vitality. And on the opposite facet, coal is having a brand new lease of life. So Michael has accomplished in depth analysis on this space and he will likely be presenting to you the way it’s economically, environmentally useful to maneuver to renewables and storage. Over to you, Michael.

Michael Barnard (MB): Thanks Reji, and thanks to the ISGF, as at all times, for having me. I’m privileged to have the ability to share my perspective, to help India to string the needle between growing affluence and bringing the rest of your residents out of poverty and in addition attaining local weather objectives, each of that are important. And it’s attainable for this subject. I’ll say this very clearly. I’m from a rustic with among the many highest emissions per capita on this planet they usually’re not taking place. Notably after I speak to folks in growing nations, I’m not saying shut off all coal, don’t construct coal. That’s not the story. It’s far more nuanced than that. And so let’s step via it after which we’ll have an excellent dialogue on the finish.

First off, there’s a extremely attention-grabbing level, which is coal kills, fuel kills, and oil technology kills, they mainly are actually problematic. They’re additionally very excessive emissions. Whereas they’ve advantages of offering electrical energy, which powers hospitals and powers trade and stuff like that, they arrive with very important downsides on each side of the ledger and direct and oblique influence. I did the mathematics a number of years in the past, and america coal fleet, for instance, killed a mean of 80 folks a 12 months for every coal plant. It was only a horrific loss of life toll for what it was.

And I definitely bear in mind Duke Power within the southeastern United States, the place they have been complaining about having placed on extra photo voltaic, however they have been burning lots of pure fuel. The pure fuel add was creating smog, which is creating childhood bronchial asthma and impacting folks with susceptible cardiovascular methods.

Clearly, we begin seeing down right here that the applied sciences of the long run are far more virtuous, each when it comes to inhabitants well being and when it comes to local weather change. So no matter the rest, shifting radically to realize decarbonized vitality has a number of advantages.

Let’s step via some examples of what’s been taking place now. These trajectories are for CO2 emissions from coal since 1990 and CO2 emissions from fuel technology since 1990. Clearly, since 1990 is the baseline for eager to decarbonize. Clearly, we’re not doing an excellent job of that. However I want to level out that the worldwide GDP and reduce in poverty since 1990 in main international locations like India and China and Brazil has been extraordinary.

So the expansion in emissions has not been as unhealthy because it could possibly be, I assume, is the best way to explain it. And there’s a lot of hope on the goal. I’ll say that this blip upwards prior to now few years is worrisome, however I think that’s going to show down, and I’ll share why.

Now, as we have a look at that, there’s a special strategy to reduce this information. And by the best way, I apologize, within the sense that that is information I assembled over the previous couple of days for this presentation. And so perhaps it’s imperfect from public sources. Don’t quote it as particular. That’s why there’s no traces on the charts. That’s why there’s no numbers on a few of these charts. They’re correct sufficient for this dialogue.

However as we have a look at this, what we see is share of electrical energy from coal and fuel for main economies of america, Europe, China and India. What we are able to see is that Europe since 1990 has really fairly considerably dropped the proportion of electrical energy that it generates with pure fuel and coal. So that’s really very optimistic. They’re a world chief on many fronts, and they’re virtuously making an attempt they usually’re virtuously succeeding. So if you must emulate someone, look to Europe. Now, america likes to make the declare that it’s diminished its CO2 emissions fairly considerably and claims advantage by shutting down coal. However actually, you’ll see that this can be a pretty flat line. They’re nonetheless producing an terrible lot of electrical energy. They’ve simply changed coal with pure fuel.

And to be clear, that solves a number of the well being issues, but it surely doesn’t remedy the local weather downside, as a result of america methane emissions leakage from their oil and fuel trade is the very best on this planet. Their rules upon the trade have been lax and their engineering was lax, and consequently, it leaks like a sieve. And the carbon dioxide equal emissions from methane have utterly changed the discount in carbon dioxide from coal. It’s not a fantastic story. So changing coal with pure fuel is just not a slam dunk.

As India considers its coal sooner or later and is contemplating LNG imports, that are far more costly, be actually cautious, particularly as we’ve seen that LNG engines have important methane slippage, vastly increased than fashions had anticipated. After we’ve accomplished the research, LNG imports are literally fairly excessive carbon dioxide or equal emissions.

So China, however, had a reasonably excessive share of electrical energy generated from coal. However now, because it’s hammering in renewables, you’ll see its curve may be very optimistic. We’re really seeing now the advantages of China’s huge renewables proliferation. They’re now approaching seven gigawatts of capability per week between wind and photo voltaic. It’s a fairly extraordinary tempo of deployment, and that’s undoubtedly one thing that India needs to be emulating. If you wish to emulate one thing out of China, hammer in much more renewables.

Now, India is an attention-grabbing one. It’s been pretty secure, but it surely’s been trending upward. So regardless of the give attention to renewables, prior to now decade, India has been constructing extra coal whereas it’s growing the consumption of electrical energy within the nation. That’s a worrisome pattern as a result of wind and photo voltaic are actually so low cost. I used to be considerably stunned by that.

To Reji’s level, that appears to be one thing that India is leaning on much more closely, whilst the remainder of the world is declining when it comes to its coal use. The well being impacts of coal can’t be understated. That has important implications on productiveness of your workforce. It has important implications on the price of healthcare within the nation. And it has, in fact, the problem of so many individuals dying after which leaving bereaved family members and family members. Fuel is best than that, but it surely’s not that significantly better. However there are some options.

Now, right here’s a method to consider coal. So these are common coal capability components. The proportion of the 12 months, as you’ll see over right here, traditionally, have been fairly excessive. Coal crops would run 75% of the hours of the 12 months, or 70% of the hours of the 12 months. And that might be type of in that baseload mannequin, and be turned off solely as essential, just for upkeep, solely when demand was applicable.

However what we see is that on this interval, we’re seeing considerably declining capability components for coal crops. What which means is that coal crops are actually getting used as versatile technology to allow and stability renewables. When you have a look at China, they’re now down at 50% or so capability components on their coal crops, they usually’re working them because the technology of final resort. If there’s wind, photo voltaic, or nuclear or hydro out there, they use that. After which provided that they want coal do they flip it on. And they also’re engineering for that. That’s the suitable alternative. I count on to see this line within the subsequent few years decline fairly considerably.

We’ll speak a bit concerning the implications of that as we transfer ahead. As we have a look at another international locations like america, you see fairly a considerable progress in coal technology via 2010. After which they’ve their a lot lauded decline of coal. So we see approaching 75% capability components in 2009 or so, however now they’re down at 40%. That’s the best trajectory. And to be clear, they’ve additionally shut down lots of coal crops. In order that’s a optimistic assertion for the well being of individuals in america.

As I stated, they changed it with pure fuel. And as you see, that is the one pure fuel line on the chart. They went from 20% capability components for pure fuel, used solely as peaking reserve and day forward reserve. Now they’re up at very excessive capability components for pure fuel, over 50%, 58%, as a result of they’re utilizing it the best way they used to make use of coal. They constructed huge quantities of pure fuel they usually’re utilizing it lots, they usually’re leaking lots of methane. So if anyone from america tells you they’re virtuous due to pure fuel or shutting down coal, the story is far more nuanced there.

As we get into Europe, they’ve lots much less capability within the type of pure fuel than america did. They construct lots much less of it. Since 1990, they’ve been decreasing the capability components of their coal crops to among the many lowest on the planet. They usually’ve additionally been shutting down coal crops. So as soon as once more, optimistic statements, optimistic ongoing efforts from Europe, they usually’re not changing coal with pure fuel to the extent america did.

As we have a look at India, what we see is India’s industrial sector was pretty restricted in 1990 by comparability to China or the west. Nonetheless important trade in Gujarat and different locations. However over time, via the 2000s, what we noticed may be very important will increase in electrical energy demand, per the info I’ve, as India’s financial growth was beginning. However even there, even India, what you’re seeing is a really important decline in capability components.

Just a little little bit of an uptick prior to now 12 months, however nonetheless what we’re seeing is beneath historic ranges, it’s beneath the height ranges. That’s the best trajectory and count on that to proceed. Everyone is aware of that you simply don’t wish to burn coal for those who don’t must. India goes to must burn lots of coal over the following 20 or 30 years, but it surely’s not almost as a lot as traditionally, as a result of it’s not baseload anymore. This chart is strongly indicative that the paradigm of base load technology from coal or some other expertise is actually taking part in out globally precisely the identical method. Everyone is treating fossil gasoline technology as technology of final resort and utilizing it as declining capability components.

So there some levers to drag as you progress ahead. The primary one, in fact, is to construct numerous wind, photo voltaic, storage, and transmission. This isn’t rocket science. I gained’t dwell on it an excessive amount of. However each research that’s been accomplished says each megawatt hour of electrical energy that we get out of wind, photo voltaic, and water eliminates a megawatt hour of electrical energy from coal, fuel or oil. These are very virtuous statements. It doesn’t actually matter about the rest so long as you’re hammering it as a lot as attainable. Clearly, India must do what everyone else besides China must do, which is speed up its deployment of renewables. Everyone on the planet is lagging when it comes to deployment of renewables, besides China, as a result of it figured it out, and it figured it out 10 or 15 years in the past. Created the nationwide strategic purpose to be a worldwide chief in these applied sciences, and that’s paying home and worldwide dividends now.

However I’m not saying that Europe is constructing sufficient, I’m not saying North America is constructing sufficient. I’m simply saying India must considerably enhance its build-out of this stuff with a view to obtain true zero emissions and to proceed decreasing the capability issue of coal crops.

The subsequent lever that I’d like to speak about is shutting down the coal crops the place there are many folks. Because the 2010 Olympics have been rising in Beijing, there was simply lots of press globally concerning the air high quality in Beijing. It was among the many worst on this planet. The US embassy, for some time, very cheekily, was really publishing the PMQ counts from their air screens on high of their embassy. That was really changed into a little bit of a minor diplomatic incident.

The federal government was this and going, this can be a black eye. And additional, China is just not a democracy, as India is, however all governments rule on the will of their folks. The way in which that they put a gloss on it in China is that varied empires misplaced the mandate of heaven. And what that basically means is that they dominated so badly that the populace stated, you must go. And ultimately they went. And that’s occurred 5 or 6 occasions over the historical past of China, at varied occasions. Air high quality in China was a type of mandate of heaven issues. As was extra just lately the lockdown, late within the COVID cycle, they have been shedding the mandate of heaven, the desire of the folks.

Within the 2000s, they have been placing colleges inside tennis domes with filtered air. In 2014, my firm wished me to maneuver to Beijing and I stated, my spouse and I like strolling exterior and we are able to’t in Beijing as a result of it the air was so unhealthy. What they did is that they stated, one of many many issues they did was they stated, effectively, all of the coal crops in and instantly round Beijing are going to close down. That meant that each one the huge well being impacts of these coal crops diminished considerably. Now they’re in parallel constructing different stuff elsewhere. But additionally the factor about coal crops in developed areas, regularly, they’re the oldest coal crops, they’re the worst, they’re the dirtiest.

As they shut down these coal crops and changed them, in lots of circumstances, the supercritical coal crops, they considerably decreased the CO2 emissions from coal and considerably diminished the well being impacts of coal. So an excellent thought is assessing the place your coal crops are and assessing the place you propose to place them to keep away from that.

Now there’s one other lever, and I’m simply going to speak about Ontario. Ontario’s one of many locations I take into account dwelling. I lived there for approaching half my life in a number of stints. I’m going to be there subsequent week. Ravi, who’s on the decision, is in Toronto proper now. I take into account it my dwelling. I’ve lived in lots of elements of it. However one of many causes I left in 1999 is as a result of the air in Toronto was so unhealthy.

The air in Toronto was so unhealthy as a result of we used lots of coal technology and we had automotive emissions, however the coal technology was the actual downside. So the federal government on the time, the Liberals below McGuinty, stated, you understand what? For local weather causes and public well being causes, we decide to shutting down coal. They usually stated, we’re going to do it in ten or eleven years. They dedicated to do it by 2013, I consider. They usually regulated that. They stated, that is what you’re going to do. Ontario technology organizations work out the best way to exchange that. Now, Ontario has a major nuclear fleet. It’s the one province in Canada that has a major nuclear fleet. Roughly 45% to 55% of its electrical energy comes from nuclear energy in any given 12 months. That was a bonus.

It additionally has large hydro amenities as a result of have a look at all this water. It’s referred to as the land of a thousand undiscovered lakes. I at all times surprise who counted the undiscovered lakes. The purpose there may be that it had benefits. It’s large, with numerous particularly two sorts of vitality. And the McGuinty authorities introduced in a coverage of numerous wind and photo voltaic, and that helped lots as effectively. Now, in 2013, once they lastly managed to close down the final coal plant, they went from 55 unhealthy air days a 12 months. And that’s unhealthy. Don’t train exterior. When you’ve received coronary heart and lung issues, don’t go exterior in any respect. Dangerous air days. They went from 55 a 12 months to zero. Now, prior to now couple of years, we’ve had wildfire smoke in Toronto and Montreal that has created unhealthy air days.

Numerous that was on account of burning coal globally. However the air in Toronto and the air in Montreal is far more healthy than it was. And so Toronto did that regulation. They subsequent put into legislation that made it legally inconceivable to construct extra coal. They didn’t simply regulate, they made it a legislation. And so any authorities who needs to return to the unhealthy previous days for no matter purpose, doesn’t have that chance. That was 37 million tons decrease coal emissions and nil unhealthy air days. Everyone was respiration extra simply.

Lever 4, exchange the worst crops. Each time you shut down an previous subcritical plant and exchange it with a brand new supercritical plant otherwise you shut down a lignite burning plant and exchange it with a bitumen burning plant, you might be decreasing the impacts of coal technology.

Whereas China will get lots of unhealthy press for the variety of coal crops it’s constructing, what doesn’t get acknowledged is what number of they’ve shut down. As we have a look at this, after I did this evaluation final 12 months, utilizing the World Power Monitor information for China, that they had 1100 working gigawatts of capability of coal crops. However they’d shelved, retired, mothballed or canceled 775 gigawatts of capability. Now retired and mothballed simply means they really shut the plant down solely. An working plant, shut down solely. Or they’ve determined that the introduced pre allow or permitted plant was not going to go ahead, for building or allowing. They simply canceled it. They stated, we don’t want this, we’re not going to do that. So a bunch of the permitted crops ended up right here. A bunch of working crops ended up right here. They made that alternative.

What China is doing very intelligently is ensuring that what coal it burns is burning in supercritical crops, which have about 60% of the carbon dioxide emissions per megawatt-hour. And it’s burning bitumen wherever attainable as an alternative of lignite, in order that they get the advantages of that. They’re additionally washing their coal far more fastidiously. And the following piece. A part of the implications of coal mercury within the atmosphere comes from most extra mercury within the atmosphere, which causes mind harm and organ failures and madness in many individuals. Most of that comes from burning coal. Sulfur in coal is what was contributing to acid rain. And they also’re consciously constructing significantly better coal the place they construct it, they usually’re intelligently shutting down the worst crops. That is one thing for India to consider as we transfer ahead. I’ve a advantage order for Gujarat crops I’ll share on the finish of this.

The subsequent lever is pricing carbon. Alberta you would possibly know, as a result of that’s the place Canada’s oil sands are. The oil sands are the very best emissions sector in Canada. The emissions from the oil sands in Alberta and the oil and fuel trade in Saskatchewan have gone up fairly a bit. So every part else that Canada has accomplished, together with Ontario shutting down coal over the previous 20 years, have been swamped by the will increase in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Once I talked about america being virtuous for shutting down coal after which not being virtuous as a result of they only changed it with excessive emissions pure fuel, effectively, Canada did a fairly good job in different elements of the nation. And we failed miserably when it comes to Alberta and Saskatchewan for comparable causes to the challenges that India faces.

The oil and fuel trade is 5-6% of the Canadian economic system. It’s troublesome for politicians of any stripe to say, we’re going to do away with 5% of our gross home product. It’s going to occur whether or not we prefer it or not. However Canada is making a few of those self same selections. Once I discuss Ontario being virtuous and Alberta, we’re not virtuous both. Our emissions haven’t come down. Now, in Alberta, they really elected a wise, centrist authorities at one level. In 2015, that they had very soiled electrical energy. It was 800 or 900 grams of CO2 e per kilowatt hour. So nearly a ton per megawatt-hour. That’s up within the stage of, you understand, above the extent of supercritical coal.

That’s how unhealthy it was. And lots of their technology was from coal. Numerous it was from mixed cycle, mixed warmth and energy crops that have been used for oil extraction on one facet and electrical energy for the grid on the opposite facet. And the federal government on the time stated, effectively, we’ve to do away with coal, at the very least. And they also made a dedication to part it out by 2030. As I stated on the time, that’s eleven out of ten for Alberta, as a result of it was an amazingly progressive coverage, and 7 out of 11 for the local weather, as a result of I assumed they might do it in ten years. I assumed they might do it by 2025.

But additionally in 2015, the federal authorities that enacted the federal carbon value got here in, and it applies to coal technology or different mechanisms that needed to be put in place in provinces to equate to that. They needed to be very cautious about how they did that. They added prices to coal. I labored it out. By 2030, with Canada’s will increase in our carbon value, the carbon value, if utilized to the coal, could be 4 occasions the price of the coal itself, coal being very low cost. So $40 a ton of coal, it’d be $120 per ton of coal burned simply from the carbon value. That was a really important impetus. Now, as we transfer ahead, these coal crops in Alberta simply stated, effectively, we are able to’t earn cash this manner.

In fact, Alberta was placing in wind and photo voltaic, till just lately, that was a really wise exercise they have been doing in Alberta, the place they’ve received large, flat plains, and it’s fairly straightforward to string out transmission traces round an enormous, flat, underpopulated plain. From an India perspective, simply consider Alberta as having a inhabitants of certainly one of your tiniest cities. There are, I believe, 4 million folks in the complete huge province. As we transfer ahead, the coal plant stated effectively we are able to’t make any cash, we are able to’t afford to function. And they also did some work they usually made some changes they usually made some agreements and the coal house owners received purchased out successfully and the final coal plant shut this month. Alberta is now coal-free. Its emissions have halved. Now carbon dioxide emissions from electrical technology are half of what they have been solely 9 years in the past.

In order that’s one other strategy to do it. The carbon value began impacting earnings and that created the aggressive benefit. Meaning extra folks put money into wind, photo voltaic, storage, and transmission as an alternative of coal. You’re pricing the destructive externality. As I talked about in my earlier lecture on Pigouvian carbon pricing approaches, it makes the economics change in a predictable method so that folks can then make strategic selections about the best way to obtain what they want.

And so we get to Gujarat. I spent a while getting what I consider is the total listing of coal facility coal technology crops in Gujarat. As soon as once more if I missed one or have some inaccurate information from the general public information I had out there to me, my apologies. I created an preliminary course advantage order for Gujarat’s coal crops.

What I stated is what expertise are they utilizing? Is it supercritical or subcritical? Supercritical scores excessive. Subcritical scores low. So I simply did a one to 5 ranking easy unweighted standards scheme and the grade of coal. Is it working lignite coal? That’s a foul rating. Is it working imported bituminous coal due to the emissions that carry alongside the provision chain that’s increased emissions as effectively. That was type of a medium rating. Bituminous coal was ranked excessive as a result of bituminous coal is essentially the most environment friendly and the bottom CO2 per ton of coal burned. It’s not nice, it’s removed from nice but it surely’s higher than the alternate options.

Then megawatts of capability. Huge crops which can be producing lots of vitality are lots tougher to switch than small crops. So small crops and also you’ve received some crops which can be within the 200-230 megawatt vary. You will have some crops which can be some amenities which can be within the 4 gigawatt vary. So as soon as once more only a advantage order of scale of plant indicating that dimension. Now the final one is a constructed up space. If the crops are in a constructed up space and three of the crops, per my public information are, effectively then they’re creating much more destructive well being impacts.

This can be a coarse measure. What we are able to see is these crops over right here are usually small. They are usually extra in built-up areas. One, two, and three of them in constructed up areas.

These crops that don’t meet this standards needs to be changed, if attainable, with supercritical crops burning bitumen, bituminous coal. In the event that they’re in a built-up space, simply shut down and a brand new plant constructed exterior of the built-up space. This can be a extra nuanced method of it. Coal is a essential evil. However we are able to diminish the quantity of destructive impacts of it with supercritical coal, with excessive grade coal, with higher washed coal, and by maintaining it away from folks as a lot as attainable.

This does require constructing some transmission and constructing some storage. However you’re constructing transmission and storage anyway. I’ll say that lots of coal amenities now are being repurposed with storage and plenty of photo voltaic. As a lot as they will pack into the house. And that’s one thing significantly to contemplate for the locations you shut down.

However eliminating these coal crops considerably reduces the destructive externalities in Gujarat. And since the technology is comparatively low, it’s comparatively straightforward to switch these ones over right here that aren’t. The 4 gigawatt crops aren’t in built-up areas so far as I do know. They usually’re working supercritical coal. They’re essentially the most fashionable amenities with the bottom emissions. Is sensible for these to persist the longest.

One of many suggestions of this materials is to create the advantage order based mostly upon all of those components. Solely allow new crops that rating excessive, supercritical, bituminous away from folks, large capacities, get essentially the most effectivity you’ll be able to out of them, after which count on them to have diminishing capability components.

So that is simply type of a perspective. This can be a thought experiment. At what level does a coal plant cease making a living? That’s a part of what occurred with the coal crops in Alberta, but it surely additionally occurred in Europe, in Denmark, they have been producing with lots of coal. Now, Denmark, as it’s possible you’ll know, is known as a result of it’s the house of Vestas, one of many world’s most modern main wind turbine manufacturing firms. And it has been because the eighties. It’s simply superb historical past there. They usually’re regularly at 150% to 160% of demand met from wind on any given day, they usually’re effectively into the excessive percentages. 20 years in the past, they already realized their coal crops have been problematic as a result of they wanted the capability for flexibility, however they wanted them at low capability components, the non-public firm, below regular market guidelines, wouldn’t agree to really function them. They simply say, effectively, we are able to’t earn cash, so we’re going to exit.

In order the capability components decline, sooner or later earnings get beneath a stage the place non-public trade is remotely . I’ve notionally pegged it at 5% or 6% earnings, simply notionally as a thought train. And beneath that they’ll simply shut the crops down. However you want the crops via 2050 to have some capability in reserve, simply because as you construct up wind, photo voltaic and storage, ultimately you’ll simply be utilizing fossil gasoline technology much less and fewer. However you continue to want it round. You don’t need folks in New Delhi to lose air con in the course of the summertime. That’s only a recipe for catastrophe. So you must preserve grid reliability excessive, you must preserve electrical energy there.

So it is advisable to create a funding mechanism. Now, Denmark, they nationalized their coal crops they usually handled them as a governmental expense for capability. That’s what they did. Within the UK, they explicitly have a capability market the place folks bid to offer capability, and pumped hydro, for instance, is below that mannequin. So pumped hydro has really received capability markets within the UK, and coal crops can have capability markets as effectively. These are annualized capability. Simply the power to activate and ship electrical energy when it’s required has worth on grids. I don’t know what India is doing on this regard. I didn’t have time to determine if India is on this house. However you’ve received to do one thing to allow these coal crops as they diminish and diminish in electrical technology, well being impacts and carbon emissions.

You’ve received to nonetheless discover a method for them to bridge this fiscal hole and allow them to make sufficient cash to remain open.

The primary query is will electrification of the mining trade be an answer to shutting down coal crops? Properly, I’d say growing demand within the mining trade is just not a strategy to scale back the demand for electrical energy that coal crops present. It’s a strategy to make mining far more virtuous in and of itself. However mining is a heavy energy group now. All types of individuals around the globe are coping with this. If we take mining for example, Australia, there was an enormous mine there eight or 9 years in the past. It was an enormous copper mine. That they had a requirement to considerably decarbonize the mine, electrify as a lot as attainable. And what they did is that they constructed a 40-megawatt photo voltaic farm close to the mine. Mines have a tendency to not be in the midst of extremely populated areas for a wide range of good causes. And they also simply constructed lots of photo voltaic close to the mine, they usually considerably diminished their emissions as they moved ahead.

Actually mining is a spot the place electrification is clearly the successful one, the place we’ve, as we glance around the globe, BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, and Fortescue have all now asserted, and these are main giants. They’ve all asserted that as they’ve checked out decarbonizing mines, electrifying the mines is the reply. We’re beginning to see increasingly more of the huge vehicles being electrified.

There’s even one mine the place they’ve this extremely profitable answer. The mine is on the high of the hill. They load the large vehicles up and run them downhill, regeneratively braking to the valley to place them on rail vehicles. Then they drive the truck up with electrical energy they generated with regenerative braking on the best way down. So they really eat no electrical energy from wherever in that mannequin. The truck generates its personal electrical energy as a result of it’s braking due to the huge quantities of ore, and its large hopper within the again. So I don’t assume electrification within the mining trade is an answer. They want vitality. In the event that they electrify, they want extra electrical energy, and India wants to offer that electrical energy. However it’s the proper factor to do.

The subsequent query is about the effectivity components of coal crops versus non fossil distributed technology. That is an attention-grabbing one. There’s a simplistic method of effectivity and capability components of various applied sciences. What is feasible with them? And so within the fossil gasoline world, effectivity actually issues since you’re consuming a gasoline that has an operational price. Even when it’s solely $40 per ton for coal, you’re nonetheless paying to make use of it.

You wish to get as a lot out of it as attainable. However coal and fuel are thermal technology. In thermal technology, you’re boiling water to make steam to show generators. That cycle has important limits when it comes to effectivity, simply thermodynamics. You’re creating warmth, which isn’t creating work. So a coal plant might need 38 or 40% effectivity at turning coal into electrical energy. A fuel turbine, which is particularly used for dashing up quick, very excessive velocity, ramp-up peakers. That may have an effectivity of solely 25% or 20%, but it surely’s okay since you’re utilizing it so not often. A mixed cycle fuel plant, what they do is they really run a turbine with energy from the technology, however then they use the waste warmth to additionally energy it. So they really stand up to 50, 55% effectivity components.

People who find themselves burning fossil fuels wish to do it as effectively as attainable, in order that they take advantage of cash. It’s simply one thing that’s been occurring for years, and the trade is doing nice stuff. However as we have a look at that on the opposite facet, folks declare that photo voltaic isn’t good as a result of it solely has a 20 or 25% capability issue, or it’s pretty low effectivity at turning daylight into vitality, however we don’t care as a result of nobody’s paying for the gasoline. Similar with wind. Wind has a most effectivity of 59.3% of the wind’s vitality that flows via the blades will be theoretically captured by a sufficiently engineered wind turbine. And so we’re approaching that. We’re at 90% to 95% of Betz’ restrict in wind vitality. That sounds unhealthy, however we don’t care as a result of the wind and the solar are free.

There is no such thing as a operational price for gasoline. Turns into vital to consider this stuff because the levelized price of electrical energy is the measure, not the effectivity. As we value carbon, the levelized price of electrical energy from fossil fuels, regardless of how effectively they’re burned, goes up. However the levelized price of electrical energy from wind and photo voltaic stays the identical as a result of there aren’t any emissions throughout operation. The effectivity is a little bit of a crimson herring. What you must do is summary it as much as the purpose the place you’re trying on the financial dialogue. Lazard has been doing its levelized price of electrical energy assessments for probably a decade now. Most just lately, prior to now few years, they’ve tended to give attention to america, which has diminished their worth considerably, from my perspective.

However in america, photo voltaic or wind firmed with battery storage are nonetheless cheaper than fuel or coal, even in america, the place they don’t have a value on carbon emissions and coal or fuel technology. As quickly as we are saying agency electrical energy from renewables is cheaper than fuel or coal technology, there isn’t any financial argument left. America is simply, no matter any insurance policies from any stage of presidency, america is simply going to construct much more renewables. And this exhibits, by the best way, I checked out some trajectories for the penetration of wind and photo voltaic from the Obama Biden administration, the Trump administration, after which the Biden Harris administration. And the curve was precisely the identical for twelve or 13 years. Nothing the federal government did modified it.

The Trump administration’s fairly well-known hatred of wind vitality did nothing to the slope of deployment of renewables. As a result of they’re cheaper, as a result of they’ve been confirmed to be dependable on grids, they’ve zero correlation with reliability. They’re not costly, and so everyone’s simply shopping for them, and they’ll, in order that they’ve gained. And so we’re simply going to maintain doing it. However giving tailwinds to the renewables and headwinds to coal and fuel is the best alternative, they usually discover their optimum balancing level.

Subsequent query. When coal crops are shutting down in growing international locations, are they stopping the additional coal extraction? Additionally, the coal will be exported. Is there any worldwide mechanism to cease that? It’s a fantastic query.

So just lately I checked out america, which has dropped its coal technology, and you’d count on the quantity of coal that it mines would diminish in alignment with that. Properly, there was a dip, however now coal mining is again as much as the place it was in 2000. [I just relooked at this, and while coal exports are up recently, they are not up as much as generation demand is down.] And the explanation for that’s precisely your level. America is a coal exporting nation, simply because it has grow to be the world’s largest oil exporting nation and the world’s largest pure fuel exporting nation. Imagine it or not, america is now a petrostate. It’s its personal Center east, which is creating lots of the issues we’re seeing within the nation.

I do know India has been having a few of these discussions as effectively. Adani, I consider it was making an attempt to mine Australian coal and construct a railroad to get it to the shores, and I consider, blast a gap via the Nice Barrier Reef, which was fairly an odd alternative, after which ship that prime grade bituminous coal to India to burn in India’s coal crops. This was being touted as an environmental win, and it’s actually very troublesome to name that an environmental win. However sure, coal exports are taking place. I’m simply going to say, as soon as once more, Canada is just not virtuous on this. We’ve been destroying mountains in western Canada and transport the coal to Japan and China for many years. It’s one of many issues we do this we’ve nothing to be proud about. So, yeah, coal is only a commodity. The mechanism to cease that’s to cost carbon in all international locations, or have the carbon value be utilized.

As I stated, Europe has the world’s largest buying and selling block, with the very best flows throughout its borders and so many exports to Europe from lots of international locations like China. That implies that for those who’re burning coal to make your merchandise, they’re excessive carbon emissions they usually’ll be priced accordingly. Getting into Europe, any nation which says, effectively, we’re going to only purchase all this low cost coal and that’s what we’re going to make use of to energy our economic system, is setting themselves as much as be priced out of the worldwide commerce markets as a result of their emissions will likely be priced. That’s an rising factor. As I stated in a dialogue on carbon pricing, North America nearly had a carbon border adjustment mechanism. China has a carbon value. Components of Indonesia have carbon costs. California has a carbon value, carbon border adjustment mechanisms and pricing which can be going to be there.

Subsequent query. How can we examine the land requirement of coal crops with regards to different choices? I’d say this can be a important crimson herring if we have a look at the land necessities globally. Mark Z. Jacobson has accomplished this in his work on this. What he’s discovered is that we use a lot land for coal, oil and pure fuel extraction, processing, refining, distribution, technology and use that it’s really better than the entire land required for renewables in our future. Partly due to the first vitality fallacy, which I mentioned earlier within the collection as effectively, the place if we have a look at a contemporary economic system, we want lower than half of the first vitality coming in to ship all of the vitality, so long as we’re going from wind, photo voltaic and water to electrical vitality providers.

The land necessities of coal crops, they’re really fairly large. They take up fairly an quantity of land themselves, however you’ll be able to’t put sufficient photo voltaic on them or wind on them to generate as a lot electrical energy as a coal plant does. However that’s not the purpose. I at all times like to make use of a picture from the Netherlands, which has lots of wind vitality, with huge, stunning fields of tulips and totally different stunning colours and blooming flowers, with wind generators everywhere. In an operational field-based agricultural system, wind vitality takes up perhaps 1% of the land, and you can also make a alternative about placing it on the least productive parts of the land. That features the wind turbine bases, the entry roads, the extra tools for energy technology. It’s 1%.

On ridgeline wind, you’re taking on 2% of land, however usually of land the place nothing’s taking place besides bushes are rising. So it’s possible you’ll be taking on 2% of the land, however you continue to produce other stuff taking place, together with simply nature between them. And photo voltaic is totally different as a result of, yeah, for those who’ve received a 4 gigawatt photo voltaic farm that’s ground-mounted, that’s lots of land. Sometimes you solely do this in Mongolia or someplace the place there aren’t lots of people. However even in China, they’ve received huge quantities of photo voltaic on rooftops as a result of we’ve all these rooftops, we’ve received flat roofs in all places. And so simply by placing photo voltaic on each rooftop that we are able to really generate an amazing quantity of electrical energy with zero extra land necessities.

I usually see this argument with nuclear crops within the west, however yeah, the land use, it’s an financial issue. I had this dialogue a decade in the past with a MacArthur Genius Grant fellow, John Dabiri, the place he was making an attempt to argue that land use of wind vitality was problematic. I stated, no, it’s simply costed in. We lease somewhat little bit of land from a farmer, they get a income stream of $6000 to $18,000 US per 12 months at the moment in america, a further drought-proof income stream. And that’s factored into the price of electrical energy. And so land use is simply one thing that goes into the levelized price of electrical energy. And that’s the best way to consider it.

I’ll say that India is just not distinctive on this, however it’s maybe extra challenged than many as a result of you’ve over 1.4 billion folks now in an space a 3rd the dimensions of Europe or China or america, geographies I have a tendency to match you to. And so that you’ve received a bigger quantity of individuals in a smaller geographical space. However nonetheless, wind vitality doesn’t take up a lot house. We now have offshore wind and floating offshore wind. You’ve received lots of agricultural land the place you’ll be able to simply put up wind generators, and lots of rooftops the place you’ll be able to put up photo voltaic. And I believe that’s it for questions. Reji, do you wish to shut it out or do you wish to ask some other questions, make some other feedback?

RP: No, as I stated, I’m not in an excellent atmosphere with lots of background noise, so wouldn’t prefer to. However this can be a essential subject, which we want to have a better stage dialogue with the decision-makers in India a couple of roadmap for closing down coal crops. This can be a essential subject we should always take up. And also you rightly talked concerning the land necessities. We’re additionally of late selling agrivoltaics, which may be very efficiently accomplished in elements of China. So the farmer will get to domesticate the land in addition to get an revenue from the photo voltaic plant builders. So simply by elevating the peak of the construction, many issues will be planted beneath the photo voltaic panels as a result of each crop doesn’t want direct daylight.

And we, India, the most important photo voltaic farms we’ve constructed are in Dajistan and Gujarat, the place an enormous space is definitely a desert, so that’s being effectively used. And we’ve one of many world’s largest floating photo voltaic crops, which is in Madhya Pradesh. It’s about 960 megawatts.