Join each day information updates from CleanTechnica on e-mail. Or comply with us on Google Information!
So, Tesla held its large annual shareholder assembly yesterday, and that included a vote to (once more) give Elon Musk by far the most important CEO compensation bundle in historical past. However the largest story at Tesla is similar because it was final quarter, final yr, and within the years to come back. The corporate is attempting to shift into an AI and robotics firm. Whereas its income and income are virtually solely from producing and promoting vehicles proper now, Elon Musk and the corporate have been very clear recently — should you don’t consider in Tesla’s AI and robotics work and plans, you shouldn’t be invested in Tesla. Once more, that is what was emphasised within the annual Tesla shareholder assembly.
Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm famous that Tesla is exclusive in how giant its retail shareholder base is. The actual fact is: institutional buyers are much less inclined to consider that one thing will occur that’s by no means occurred earlier than, that one thing might be created that hasn’t been created earlier than. Retail shareholders are extra inclined to consider in desires. A decade in the past, the dream was mass-produced, high-volume, reasonably priced electrical vehicles. Those that believed had been rewarded when Tesla manufacturing and gross sales exploded. Those that didn’t consider and had been ridiculed by critics for years obtained the final chortle. Right now, the dream is one thing very completely different. Tesla gross sales have stagnated and even dropped after their lengthy climb, however the focus is now on AI, true full self driving, and a brand new technology of robots which can be extra like people and able to doing quite a lot of duties.
Tesla’s previous success doesn’t predict what is going to occur sooner or later. It could possibly be that Tesla once more achieves what most assume it can’t, or it could possibly be that Tesla can’t succeed on this very completely different enterprise. The brand new objectives should not as “simple” as scaling up mass manufacturing of electrical vehicles. They contain going the place no firm has gone earlier than in advancing synthetic intelligence as a way to allow widespread use of robotaxis by thousands and thousands of individuals and synthetic intelligence plus robotics as a way to allow human-like robots that may carry out all kinds of duties.
However how about some quotes from Tesla now? To kick off, from the recorded intro video for the assembly, Elon Musk states, “My prediction is that a majority of Tesla’s long term value will be Optimus.” He additionally states, “Regarding FSD version 12, it’s profound. The rate of improvement is rapid. It might be the biggest asset value appreciation in history when you can do unsupervised full self-driving.”
However, once more, simply because Tesla achieved what it did up to now doesn’t imply it’s going to obtain these objectives. It’s a complete completely different sport. Once more, you don’t should take my phrase for it. Right here’s what Elon Musk acknowledged at yesterday’s assembly: “I think we’re not just opening a new chapter for Tesla. We’re starting a new book.”
I don’t assume anybody is aware of for certain what is going to occur, however certainly, Elon Musk and Tesla shareholders consider within the story of this new guide. If all the pieces works, Tesla would be the solely firm on the earth with broadly obtainable unsupervised full self-driving functionality in thousands and thousands of shopper vehicles. It would even be bringing a brand new product — a brand new house and office robotic — to who is aware of what number of consumers? If this stuff work, potential development and income are not possible to think about. And the way lengthy it might take different firms to catch up can be fully unpredictable, notably attributable to Tesla’s distinctive knowledge supply and head begin.
If this stuff don’t work, nonetheless, Tesla will proceed to compete towards a whole lot of different automakers promoting increasingly, and higher and higher, electrical automobiles. If it fails on these large makes an attempt, that might be a tarnish on the corporate and it’s going to be very troublesome to develop at wherever near the speed it has beforehand grown at. In the meantime, actually, if it continues to pour cash into FSD and robots they usually don’t bear fruit, particularly financially, then Tesla could possibly be pouring cash down a drain and massively disappointing shareholders with billions of {dollars} of inventory on the road. One might even say that if it fails on FSD and robotics, the corporate might collapse on itself — particularly if it has overbuilt its factories, shops, and repair facilities. What occurs should you plan for, and construct for, 50% development a yr however then find yourself with 0% development a yr?
Being fully trustworthy and frank, I don’t have a robust, clear opinion on what is going to occur. It’s arduous to know what Tesla can and may’t obtain with its strategy to FSD, robotaxis, and superior robots. I’ve learn numerous feedback for and towards the corporate. Some appear convincing on one facet, and a few appear convincing on the opposite facet. However none can definitively inform us if Tesla’s strategy will work ultimately. And we are able to’t blindly consider Elon Musk, who mentioned there can be a full self-driving demonstration from San Francisco to New York Metropolis about 7 years in the past, and has misjudged the progress and way forward for the expertise for a number of years. We can also’t blindly consider skilled critics who say Tesla gained’t obtain this stuff as a result of they haven’t been carried out earlier than and Tesla doesn’t have the proper technological strategy, as a result of we heard that about SpaceX’s reusable rockets (and different issues), we heard that in regards to the Tesla Mannequin S, the Tesla Mannequin X, the Tesla Mannequin 3, and the Cybertruck. There are at all times some consultants who’re hyper-skeptical, have restricted imaginative and prescient, and find yourself being unsuitable. I’ve seen it far an excessive amount of, particularly within the case of Tesla, to blindly consider consultants.
In the mean time, for me, it’s a stalemate. I see causes to consider and causes to not consider. The loopy factor is simply how a lot is on the road on this case. It’s not a selection between a burger or a burrito. It’s about whether or not Tesla will turn out to be the most important firm on the earth or stagnate and collapse. Maybe we’ll have higher perception into the place issues are headed by the top of the yr, or maybe even by the top of the summer season. We’ll see. Within the meantime, please do share intensive, detailed arguments that make the case for both facet. I’m at all times searching for new clues!
