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Within the US, the “duck curve” is a California phenomena.
It’s a change to the legacy approach of working technology on the grid. The final time there was a signifiant change, and all of this was predicted lengthy earlier than it occurred, there was an excessive amount of photo voltaic in the course of the center of the day, however electrical charges nonetheless had a premium for noon consumption. This was out of step for utilities and system operators who had been coping with curtailment on the availability aspect and lack of demand on the consumption aspect.
So, slowly, after years, the California Public Utilities Fee (CPUC) modified its insurance policies and granted the utilities adjustments to eradicate daytime electrical fee premiums.
Now, the difficulty is totally different. The long-awaited duck curve problem is right here in a giant approach, with some days in spring now being 100% photo voltaic.
As proven, the issue with that is that photo voltaic technology tapers off quickly on the finish of the day, and it’s troublesome to ramp technology shortly in response for night consumption.
The CPUC beforehand raised charges within the early night hours as compensation. Power customers and utilities had been additionally enlisted to compensate for the wanted ramp in technology.
There are a number of easy options. The PUC and leaders in vitality discovered that demand response or demand administration, native aggregated technology, native aggregated demand response, storage, and different strategies similar to EIM, vitality imbalance markets, and a greater coordination of provide and demand between bigger areas may work on each the availability and consumption aspect to ease the issue. Proper now, the quantities of utility storage are small. Usually, previously, quick technology responses had been made by easy fuel generators, which have low cost preliminary value, are quick beginning and ramping, have some operating prices and a few gas prices, and for probably the most half are perfect for sudden masses. Their general marginal value was often increased than different technology, however nothing else would try this job so cheaply and so nicely … till batteries got here alongside. Now battery vitality storage is cheaper than pure fuel crops and BESS are changing fuel generators progressively in California. This began way back to 2018 and has unfold to different elements of the US as battery vitality storage costs have plummeted.
However … the quantity of legacy quick technology wanted in California previous to the duck curve was much less. The each day load curve was smoother and technology ramping was slower, so fuel mills and quick ramping technology was confined largely to sudden system outage wants and comparatively rare occurrences like storms. Now extra quick response is required and that quick ramping technology is required extra ceaselessly, on nearly a each day foundation by massive elements of the yr, if not most of it.
There are answers working now, as a result of fuel generators should not the one technology that may ramp. However when all or practically the entire technology is photo voltaic throughout a day, and the remaining mills must all ramp pretty shortly abruptly, it locations a pressure on operations. To this point, this has been accommodated with none main incidences.
Nevertheless, the frequent think about all that is that, traditionally, the general public utility fee used an anachronistic mechanism designed to set charges on at most an annual foundation. That form of response is way too sluggish to reply to fast seasonal, regional, and different occasions that occur far more shortly in at present’s fast-paced grid. As an alternative, foreknowledge ought to result in variations designed to hurry the response to extra fast adjustments.
Right here, there’s a objective to attach market mechanisms, retail charges, to wholesale, and to attach utility and different technology suppliers and buyer demand to produce in a extra coordinated technique to decrease prices and make the system work higher.
The CPUC didn’t problem a change to daytime electrical fee premiums till nicely after photo voltaic produced an oversupply of daytime electrical energy. That was too sluggish. It did foresee the duck curve and moved to create treatments upfront, with some success.
One other entity within the chain of electrical vitality is the Impartial System Operator, or ISO, charged with working the system. It plans and adjusts technology in accordance with demand patterns and demand prediction. It allocates and dispatches energy from utilities in response to anticipated day-ahead or hour-ahead adjustments and works to steadiness technology to demand.
In California, there are a number of ISOs. Probably the most vital is CAISO.
What is occurring at present
In some methods, the system has labored. Let’s give some examples.
First, the system didn’t collapse in response to 100% photo voltaic days this yr.
Second, a few of its responses, vitality storage, early night fee premiums, aggregated demand administration, and different issues labored to cut back the difficulty.
Listed below are some examples of how.
Demand Response Suppliers: “A DRP/aggregator is a commercial entity that provides demand response programs and services such as assisting retail customers participate in the wholesale energy market (operated by California Independent System Operator, aka CAISO) and with strategies or technology to reduce their electric consumption during times of grid needs in exchange for compensation.” Demand response can work with customers to cut back demand at strategic occasions.
On the ISO aspect, CAISO lists these strategies accessible underneath the demand response, or DR, heading: “The ISO offers various load participation models to fit different resource characteristics. Use the Participation Comparison — Proxy Demand, Distributed Energy Resource Provider, Storage, and Load Forecast Adjustment.”
Demand response applications haven’t all gone completely. The truth is, the CPUC determined to sundown one, however that call has had combined critiques. The CPUC arrange a factor referred to as DRAM, Demand Response Aggregator Market, an public sale for demand response mechanisms, however now it’s ending it in response to utility requests. This transfer has combined critiques.
There are DR aggregators for all the things from massive retail to residential. Considered one of them is OhmConnect, a service I thought-about at one time. It’s a program of voluntary demand reductions with incentives operated by OhmConnect underneath the DR applications arrange by the CPUC. The CPUC arrange applications underneath IOUs (investor owned utilities) and third celebration suppliers. OhmConnect is a 3rd celebration supplier. Curiously, Tesla can be a supplier. Its simple to examine that any entity already offering storage may act to even be a requirement response supplier underneath the auspices of the CPUC.
OhmConnect works by notifying contributors about the necessity to decrease demand throughout particular hours. That is carried out by customary communication strategies like e mail and SMS 24 hours upfront. Individuals should have sensible plugs and gadgets. There’s a checklist on their web site. When notified, contributors robotically energy down masses at requested hours. OhmConnect contributors are rewarded for his or her responses.
Whereas this answer and different DR and DRP options work, I’m a bit upset {that a} extra fashionable, computerized system shouldn’t be but used for DR. I envisioned a system the place sensible gadgets had been underneath voluntary management by way of direct means by way of the web. The system would permit customers to manage how a lot and in the event that they selected to take part by way of an app that they management. That approach, indicators may very well be broadcast quickly, responses can be computerized and never require guide intervention or nags by way of snail mail and textual content, and usually would require much less user-required interplay.
It might make it simple to take part. Most individuals are actually aware of utilizing apps like Nest or smarter home equipment. First customers are prone to take pleasure in utilizing the comfort, foregoing fixed participation by e mail nags in favor of extra handy consumer pleasant apps as a substitute, mixed with the straightforward choice of overriding participation on a case and use foundation — say, for an unscheduled must function an equipment.
If billing incentives are operated on a utilization participation foundation, the consumer has the continual selection of which home equipment and the way a lot to function them in response to cost indicators from the technology market.
I’ve at all times felt {that a} harmonization of the wholesale and retail markets, or provide and demand aspect of the vitality markets, was so as, and would work to offer stability and advantages on all sides of the system.
It seems to me that such a system would allow that.
An SMS and e mail notification is slower in comparison with a direct interconnect hyperlink. Good gadgets are already on WiFi. Why not make the hyperlink app hook up with the equipment instantly as a substitute of requiring each day guide consumer intervention creating one more chore for individuals, as a substitute of including comfort. To me, the most important problem right here is that, as a lot as attainable, the interface between demand and provide should be managed by mechanisms with fast response sooner than 24 hours forward — I imply, speedy, as in minutes at most. There isn’t any cause this can’t be completed by way of mechanisms as I outlined right here.
